The S&P 500 just logged a three-day winning streak, inching closer to its record of 6,144.15 from February 19, 2025.
Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Technology Index has already climbed to a new all-time closing high—the first in nearly four months.
With the U.S. CPI data dropping this Wednesday, will inflation cool enough to send markets soaring… or stall the rally? North or south—what’s your call?
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1. @yourcelesttyy:
Key Points:
Market Sentiment: Optimism with a Side of Caution
Sentiment is bullish but jittery. The VIX, at 20, is down from April’s 48 but above its long-term average, signaling lingering nerves. Social media is buzzing: X posts hype a “new bull cycle” to 6,500 for the S&P 500, while others warn of a “trap” if CPI spikes. Analysts like Morgan Stanley see 6,500 by year-end if inflation cools, but Goldman Sachs cautions that a hot CPI could drag the S&P to 5,800. The Nasdaq’s tech momentum draws retail traders, but high valuations (forward P/E at 28x vs. S&P’s 22x) raise risks.
Other Catalysts on June 11
Oracle’s Q4 Earnings: Post-market earnings could sway tech sentiment. A cloud-driven beat might lift Nasdaq; a miss could ripple across both indices.
Federal Budget Data: A projected $310 billion deficit, down from $347 billion, could signal fiscal discipline, offering a mild stock boost.
WWDC Aftermath: Apple’s AI reveals from WWDC (June 10) could spill over, impacting Nasdaq’s tech-heavy momentum.
Trading Opportunities
June 11 offers a range of trading plays driven by CPI, earnings, and trade developments:
Bullish Plays: Cool CPI (<2.6%): Buy SPY (S&P 500 ETF) at 614, target 620, stop at 600. For Nasdaq, buy QQQ at 490, target 500, stop at 475. Trade Talk Progress: Grab TSLA or AAPL on China optimism, targeting $320 and $230, respectively, with stops at $280 and $210. Oracle Earnings Beat: Buy ORCL at $145 post-earnings, target $155, stop at $140.
Bearish Plays: Hot CPI (>2.7%): Short SPY below 600, target 590, stop at 615. Short QQQ below 480, target 460, stop at 495. Oracle Earnings Miss: Short ORCL below $140, target $130, stop at $145.
Hedge Plays: Options Straddle: Buy SPY or QQQ straddles at current levels to profit from CPI-driven swings. Defensive Pivot: Add healthcare (XLV) at $140, target $145, as a safe haven if trade or inflation news sours. Energy Hedge: Buy XLE at $90, target $95, if inflation spikes lift commodity prices.
My Trading Plan
I’m gearing up for a volatile day, with CPI as the main event. If inflation comes in below 2.6%, I’ll buy SPY at 614, targeting 620, with a stop at 600, and QQQ at 490, aiming for 500, with a stop at 475. If CPI exceeds 2.7%, I’ll short SPY below 600, targeting 590, with a stop at 615. I’m also eyeing Oracle’s earnings—buying at $145 on a beat, with a stop at $140. Trade talk updates could spark a TSLA move, so I’ll watch $280 for an entry. I’m holding 25% cash to pounce on dips or breakouts and a small XLV position for defense.
2. @Isleigh:
Key Points:
📈 Technical Set-up: Can SPY Extend Its Rally?
Today's +0.5% gain keeps SPY in a bullish trend, supported by both trade optimism and dovish Fed hopes .
If tonight's CPI is benign or lower, SPY could hold above 605–610, eyeing all-time highs even before Fed meets mid-June.
Hot inflation? That puts SPY at risk of a 2–3% pullback into the 590–595 range.
🔮 Market Scenarios & Trade Blueprint
Scenario Catalyst SPY Outlook
Bullish CPI tame + trade progress 605–620
Neutral CPI meets expectations 600–605
Bearish CPI surprise + tariff flare-up 580–590
💼 Trade Strategy
✅ Bullish approach: Maintain long ETFs with tight stop below 600; aim for 620.
⚠️ Hedged play: Buy put spreads under 600 ($590–595), sized to 75% of longs for protection.
🔍 Watch for: bond yields, 30‑year auction, and fresh China trade headlines into next week.
🎯 Final Take
SPY's winning streak is poised to continue—but only if CPI stays cool AND trade buzz sustains. A perfect exit would be around 610–620 before inflation or trade disappointments.
3. @Ragz:
Key Points:
Technical analysis shows it going into overbought territory, so it is prudent to be cautious with the present rise.
4. @andrew123:
Key Points:
Trump say fight fight fight. wat he meant was buy buy buy. ATH Akan DATANG soon.
5. @ToNi:
Key Points:
S&P 500’s Bullish Trajectory
The S&P 500, currently trading at 6005.89 as of this morning, is well-positioned to break past its all-time high of 6147.43 set in February 2025. Analysts from Goldman Sachs project a 10% return for 2025, with an earnings per share (EPS) forecast of $268, reflecting confidence in corporate profitability. The index’s recent 5.74% gain over the past month underscores strong momentum, particularly in technology and consumer discretionary sectors. The upcoming CPI data release this week could further catalyze this upward trend if it confirms cooling inflation, potentially pushing the index toward 6500 by year-end, as predicted by Morgan Stanley.
Key Drivers of Growth
Several factors are propelling this optimism. First, technological innovation, led by companies like Tesla and Intel, continues to drive productivity gains. Second, a thawing of U.S.-China trade tensions, with recent negotiations showing progress, is boosting investor sentiment. Third, the Federal Reserve’s balanced approach to monetary policy—maintaining rates while signaling potential cuts in 2026—provides a stable backdrop for equity markets. Lastly, the resilience of small and mid-cap stocks, which have outperformed expectations, suggests broad-based economic strength.
6. @sylarnz:
Key Points:
As the S&P 500 approaches 6000, I believe there are several key factors at play. The recent strength in the tech sector, coupled with continued optimism around AI and economic resilience, has pushed the index higher. However, the upcoming US CPI release could either validate the rally or trigger a pullback if inflation remains stubbornly high.
My view:
If CPI comes in lower than expected, it could further fuel the rally and create room for new highs beyond 6000.
If CPI surprises to the upside, markets might reassess the potential for more Fed rate hikes, causing a short-term dip
Overall, while I see some near-term caution warranted, the underlying trend remains bullish. I think there is a good chance we could see new highs if economic data supports the soft-landing narrative. Lets see how the CPI release shapes the direction this week!
7. @Woodys:
Key Points:
If the current trend continues we could easily see a new ATH.
8. @ECLC:
Key Points:
Can possibly break to new highs but I waiting for dips to buy a bit.
9. @LucasOng:
Key Points:
Dollar cost average into the S&P. At least when if it continues to go up, u are in the market. If u goes down, deploy your war chest and buy even more. Not forgetting, your DCA shares also help with building your war chest from the dividend.
10. @lionRoar:
Key Points:
This is a good time to sell call on S&P.
Questions for you:
Heading south or north?
Is it possible to set new highs?
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⏰Duration
18 June (24pm EDT)
Comments
Bearish = Lower highs and Lower lows
Waiting for the market to break the structure is a great way to trade reversals
Preparing for a pullback…