Great traders don’t predict — they position around probability

Michael Esther
06-17

Great traders don’t predict — they position around probability.

Every option chain already tells you the most likely move.

How? Look at the 0.25 Delta — it reflects the expected move with about a 75% chance that price stays inside that range.

expecting moved for today on $S&P 500(.SPX)$ was 6047

So instead of asking “Where will price go?”

I ask: “What’s the most probable zone it can go to or it stays in?”

That shift changes everything:

•✅ Less stress, more structure

•✅ Trades based on edge, not emotion

•✅ Confidence in risk, not hope in reward

Trading is a game of odds, not outcomes.

Use Delta. Use expected move.

Trade like a risk manager, not a fortune teller.

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Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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