$SPDR Gold Shares(GLD)$ $iShares Silver Trust(SLV)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ 📊🛢️🪙Oil Escalates, Gold Hesitates, SPY Gyrates: Reading the Market’s Fractured Playbook 📉🧠⚔️

18June25, 🇳🇿NZST

What do you call it when oil’s on fire, gold’s cooling off, and the S&P 500 forgets which way is up? Traders call it Tuesday.

But underneath this disjointed price action is a story that matters. Gold is holding structure, oil is screaming risk, and equities are whispering indecision. Let’s unpack this chaos, and position ahead of the resolution.

💡 Gold’s Quiet Dominance: The Long Game That Keeps Winning

Since its 2004 launch, $GLD has delivered an average annual return close to 10% and it’s still beating its benchmark over 3Y, 5Y, and 10Y periods. The latest chart shows a slight -0.01% monthly dip, but its 1Y return? A staggering +40%.

In a world hooked on short-term dopamine, $GLD is the quiet achiever that just keeps compounding.

📈 Technical Structure: All Eyes on the $317.63 Trigger

Zoom into the weekly candle: price is consolidating under all-time highs with a rising 10-week MA at 305.65 and a supportive 30-week trendline. The current close near $311.76 suggests bulls are coiling.

Daily PPO is resetting just above the zero line, prepping momentum for the next leg up. If gold cracks $317.63 on volume, the breakout could extend toward $335, with $SLV playing silver catch-up.

Fun fact: every time GLD broke ATH on declining real yields, silver gained more than 20% in the following month.

📉 Valuations Say: Brace Yourself

The SPX is valued at a historic 133% above its mean across four indicators. That’s more inflated than 1929, 2000, or 2007. With the SPX/Gold MACD rolling over (see TradingView MACD chart), history suggests the baton is being passed to real assets.

🛢️ Oil Doesn’t Whisper, It Screams

$USO is printing green on the back of escalating global tensions. Radar data over the US Northeast, WTI options skew, and a new risk premium suggest geopolitical flashpoints are priced in, but not resolved. Energy’s bid is defensive, not cyclical.

In other words, capital is hedging for chaos.

📉 $SPY: The Confused Giant

Flat to choppy action in $SPY doesn’t mean “no story.” It means too many competing narratives. Triple witching, index rebalancing, and bond market dysfunction are all converging. Powell’s tone this Wednesday could either validate gold’s run or yank the rug.

🪙 Silver’s Spring: $SLV Set for Follow-Through

Silver’s gearing for a volume breakout. Watch $SLV if $GLD clears $317.63. The gold to silver ratio is still stretched, and silver’s known for violent catch-up rallies once it moves. Keep $33 and $35.70 on your radar.

🎯 Watchlist This Week

$GLD breakout above $317.63 with PPO expansion

$SLV confirmation rally toward $33 plus

$USO continuation with WTI above $83 and volume confluence

$SPY reaction to OPEX and Powell speech, potential volatility unwind

💡 Contrarian Edge

Gold is trading at a -1.51% discount to NAV while sitting just under ATHs. That tells me we’re still in the “disbelief” phase. When capital rotation begins in earnest, GLD won’t just hedge, it will lead.

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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