$Exxon Mobil(XOM)$ $Cheniere(LNG)$ $United States Oil Fund LP(USO)$ 🚨🌍💥 Middle East Turmoil: How Israel’s Conflict with Iran Could Shatter China’s $400 Billion Investment 💥🌍🚨🇮🇱🇨🇳

Geopolitics just rewrote the energy playbook. 🇨🇳 China’s strategic partnership with Iran, a $400 billion, 25-year agreement signed in 2021, is now under siege. As Israel’s military operation escalates and the Iranian regime weakens, the entire framework of China’s Middle Eastern influence is at risk of collapse.

🛢️ This wasn’t just an oil deal. It was a global counterweight. China secured:

• 25 years of deeply discounted oil

• Unrestricted access to Iran’s military, telecom, and financial sectors

• BRI-aligned infrastructure projects to anchor its regional presence

But in classic Beijing fashion, the deal was exploitative by design. Over 90% of Iran’s oil now flows to China, paid for in yuan, swapped for goods Iran didn’t freely choose, and bartered through off-market rates. It’s a raw power play, disguised as economic cooperation. Even Iran’s own officials have called it a “colonial trap.”

🪤 Now, that trap could spring shut, on China!

If U.S. sanctions ease or the Iranian regime unravels, the ripple effects will be immediate:

• Cheap energy lifelines vanish

• Infrastructure projects collapse

• Yuan-for-oil exchanges become unviable

• The entire $400 billion agreement turns to ash

And China, which had counted on Iran as a key geopolitical ally, faces a gaping hole in its energy strategy.

This is where it gets explosive!💣🧨💥

🇮🇷 Iran has historically backed militant groups like Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis, all groups destabilised in recent months. With these groups losing ground and Iran’s nuclear programme under threat, the regime’s viability is on the edge.

Israel’s military is now openly preparing for direct escalation. Reports suggest the U.S. is weighing support for a pre-emptive strike on Fordow, a hardened nuclear facility buried deep inside Iran. One former CIA officer and Air Force veteran stated: “Israel has secured its borders, now only Iran remains.”

That’s not rhetoric, it’s intent!

💥 So what happens if this spirals?

China’s oil dependency tightens into a noose. Without Iranian supply, China’s refineries will be forced into open-market purchases, likely driving up Brent crude and LNG prices. Higher energy costs could trigger:

• Inflation shocks

• Slower GDP growth

• Domestic unrest among China’s urban population

🇺🇸 And here’s where the U.S. oil majors re-enter the frame.

📈 ExxonMobil ($XOM) and Cheniere Energy ($LNG) stand to benefit immensely.

• $XOM trades at a forward P/E of 17.72 with a 3.43% yield, showing strong capital allocation in volatile times. The weekly chart shows a bullish MA cluster (MA5/10/20/30 rising), suggesting renewed momentum from $113 to potentially test the $126.34 level again.

• $LNG is consolidating near a breakout. With a forward P/E of 20.54 and ROE nearing 47%, it’s already priced for premium growth. The chart shows tight Bollinger compression just under $239, setting up a volatility expansion move.

If China begins sourcing U.S. energy or LNG to replace Iranian barrels, these companies become global suppliers of last resort.

📌 Key Takeaways:

• China’s $400B Iran deal is now an exposed liability

• If Iran falls, energy flows shift from East to West, fast

• China may be forced to pivot to U.S. suppliers, pushing up demand for $XOM and $LNG

• Energy equities could surge on geopolitical tailwinds as the Middle East destabilises

• Expect volatility in crude benchmarks, LNG export contracts, and tanker rates

This isn’t just a headline risk, it’s a historic fracture in energy diplomacy. Traders who understand the intersection of foreign policy, oil supply chains, and market reallocation stand to be early movers in the coming wave of capital rotation.

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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