1.
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ robo-taxi thesis relied on the assumption that it would have launched before others and collect monopoly rents for at least a few years.
It has finally launched it but $Alphabet(GOOG)$ Waymo is already in the market and now $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ is also launching its robo-taxi business ZOOX later this year in Las Vegas.
It’s already a competitive market, and no single provider is likely to dominate it.
Just think about how long will it take scaling from this little area in Austin to the whole world?
Where will $Uber(UBER)$ be at that time if it extends its partnership with other providers to enter other regions faster?
I like Tesla but if your $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ to $2,500 thesis relies on this, you’ll be disappointed.
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2.
I thought robo-taxis would kill $Uber(UBER)$ ?
There will be at least three operational robo-taxi businesses in the US before this year ends.
Market basically noticed that all of them lack the distribution network to scale fast.
Who owns the distribution? It’s UBER.
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3.
$Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ bear case isn’t losing GLP-1 revenue.
Partnership took the lawsuit risk off the table, now it’s back on the table.
HIMS shouldn’t distract itself with lawsuits, it already has an immense opportunity in its core business.
It should just withdraw from GLP-1 business.
$Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ should completely withdraw from GLP-1 market.
This product has become a complete distraction for them, it proved to be more harmful than beneficial.
They were completely fine before that. The stock was getting lower multiples but it was on its way to become a compounder.
What’ll be the revenue contribution of generic semaglutide? What would have been the contribution of Wegovy?
It’s not worth the risk.
They are already dominating the telehealth market. They should focus more on the core, wait for semaglutide to come to them, not pursue it.
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