OguzO Capitalist
OguzO Capitalist
Selective contrarian investor | The writer of the Capitalist-Letters newsletter
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avatarOguzO Capitalist
04-08 03:51

AMZN: What's Going on Next?

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some trading ideas with you!1. $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ has 3 businesses making more than $50 billion revenue a year.E- commerce: Chinese players are hit by tariffs.Cloud: Nearly all revenue is recurring.Ads: Will only grow long-term.All these trading at 15 times operating cash flow.How can AMZN lose from here?Image2. What's the right thing to do?US companies are still the bests in the world.Their shares have fallen significantly from peaks and investors thinking long-term should start taking advantage of this.This should be done without betting the house and keeping in mind that further turmoil is always possible.Open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with upcoming 0-commission, un
AMZN: What's Going on Next?
avatarOguzO Capitalist
04-07 09:11

GOOG: What's the Downside of Buying GOOG Here?

1. $Alphabet(GOOG)$ holds $95 billion in cash and t-bills.Yet, it's priced like it's going bankrupt at 14 times operating cash flow..It's now cheaper than it was in Covid crash.What's the downside of buying GOOG here, seriously?Image2.People still want to believe that tariffs are just a negotiation strategy…Well, they aren’t.Trump thought tariffs was the solution back in 1989 and he still thinks that way.This is not a negotiation strategy, this is the worst economic policy decision of the century.Image3. $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ is now trading at 15 times operating cash flow, lowest in history.Meanwhile free cash flow is expected to grow 33% annually for the next 5 years.Can you tell me one reason why this shou
GOOG: What's the Downside of Buying GOOG Here?

Here are 10 Undervalued Foundational Stocks to Buy Now

Market is close to a correction territory and the highest quality stocks are selling at discount.Here are 10 undervalued foundational stocks to buy now: 🧵1. $Amazon.com(AMZN)$The stock has gone nowhere since November 2021.Meanwhile, it increased revenue by 50%, doubled profits and net margin. AWS growth is reaccelerating even though they remain supply constrained.It'll grow free cash flow by more than 15% annually for the next decade, yet it's trading at just 17 times operating cash flow.Great opportunity to double down now.Image2.$Alphabet(GOOG)$ Cheapest mega-cap stock by far.Investors are overly pessimistic about the future of the search yet the search volume is increasing and so does commercial querie
Here are 10 Undervalued Foundational Stocks to Buy Now

Here's the 10 Best Opportunities

Market is giving away high quality companies at bargain prices in fear.Here's the 10 best opportunities: 🧵1. $Nu Holdings Ltd.(NU)$ 5-year Revenue CAGR: 52%Net Profit Margin: 35%Forward P/E: 22Largest digital bank in the world active in Brazil, Mexico and Colombia.It has over 100 million users and growing yet the stock plummeted because growth slowed down due to foreign currency exchange rate headwinds.Brazilian Real dipped against the USD in December and headwinds turned to tailwinds. It's grossly undervalued at 22 times forward earnings.Image2. $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ 5-year Revenue CAGR: 13%Net Profit Margin: 10%Forward P/E: 30AWS is already the largest cloud provider in the world and its growth is reaccelera
Here's the 10 Best Opportunities

Trading Strategies: GOOG, HOOD& SOFI

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some trading analysis with you!1.Everybody is so fixated on how undervalued $Alphabet(GOOG)$ but $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ is even more undervalued. $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ spent $41 billion more on R&D last year than $Alphabet(GOOG)$ .If $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ had spent only as much as $Alphabet(GOOG)$ , it would have been trading at 20 times trailing earnings.Two words: Great opportunity.Image2. $Robinhood(HOOD)$ is by far the most innovative fintech but it’s not kil
Trading Strategies: GOOG, HOOD& SOFI

This Should be Modus Operandi for Every Investor

1. $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ is perhaps the most overlooked opportunity in this market.- Exceptional founder.- Fast growing market.- Cutting edge custom hardware.- Set to triple the ARR this quarter.Trading at just 6x forward sales.Truly a 10x opportunity everybody ignores.2.Layered regulations is the biggest obstacle for scaling robotaxis.National legislations should be permissive and regional and municipal regulations should be facilitating the adoption.Process will be different for every city on earth. This is why Waymo is scaling city by city.This is one of the major reasons I think $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ robotaxi thesis is flawed.3.This should be modus operandi for every investor.Here are some business creating o
This Should be Modus Operandi for Every Investor

This is Why I Avoid $TSLA

This is why I avoid $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ .It sounds so sweet when you speculate that TSLA will make 10x in 5 years and 90% of the value will come from robotaxis.Let's calculate what it takes, shall we?Target stock price implies $7.4 trillion market cap. This means that $6.66 trillion market cap will come from robotaxi business.Even if you give 10x sales multiple to this business, you need $666 billion annual revenue from robotaxi business.For reference, $Uber(UBER)$ operates in over 140 countries and makes $39 billion revenue from mobility. Even UBER is grappling with regulations in many countries.You are basically assuming that the whole world will timely issue permissive regulations, TSLA will operate i
This is Why I Avoid $TSLA

AMD: The Attractive Valuation

1/ $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ is at the edge of a bullish breakout.Last time it bounced back from $90 levels, it went straight to all time highs with no catalyst.This is repeating now and it's exploding data center revenue is a great catalyst. Here is my AMD investment thesis: 🧵Image2. You have to take a look at this:Last time AMD bounced back off $90 levels, it tripled in a matter of months.This was without any catalyst.Now the same event seems to repeat with a catalyst: Data center revenue growth.Image3.AMD data center revenue grew 69% last year.From Q3 2023 to Q4 2024, quarterly revenue literally tripled increasing every quarter.Yet, this is just the beginning.AMD is finally catching up with $NVIDIA(NVDA
AMD: The Attractive Valuation

UBER: Huge Potential to Buy!

1. $Morgan Stanley(MS)$ says $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ app download was up 47% YoY and web traffic was up 18% YoY in February.The stock is currently trading at just 22 times 2027 earnings.They haven’t even launched menopause, testosterone and home testing yet.Very long runway, very attractive risk/reward.Image2. $Uber(UBER)$ is a 2x opportunity.Revenue is still growing fast, earnings are booming and it's set to dominate the age of autonomous driving.Here is my UBER investment thesis: 🧵ImageUber is one of the most misunderstood companies...People think it's a ride sharing and delivery business.No, it owns the largest distribution network in the whole mobil
UBER: Huge Potential to Buy!

PDD: Undervalued but Little Problem

1. $PDD Holdings Inc(PDD)$ I don't own, it's still criminally undervalued but there are problems.. 🚨Slower top-line growth is because of a lower take rate, which is a result of competitive pressures.It doesn't have a tech ecosystem like $Alibaba(BABA)$ $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ or $MercadoLibre(MELI)$ . In this form, all strategy depends on being the cheapest. Conversely, other providers, like BABA, has all the same means to compete them at price, they had just lagged execution. Now they are coming back.Overall, there is no doubt it's undervalued, but the question is "why should the market catch up with the fundamentals rather t
PDD: Undervalued but Little Problem

Here are My Top 5 International Stock Picks

As tariffs are scheduled to come into effect in April, global diversification is more important than ever.Here are my top 5 international stock picks:1. $Nu Holdings Ltd.(NU)$ Stock tanked following Q4 earnings as it suffered from FX headwinds. Brazilian Real dipped against USD in December and it’s been strengthening since then. As FX turned to tailwinds, it remains cheap at 22 times forward earnings.2. $ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ Monopoly in extreme ultraviolet lithography machines that are indispensable for manufacturing cutting edge chips. Order intake is set to accelerate as TSMC plans 5 new facilities in the USA and it keeps expanding in Japan and Europe.3. $MercadoLi
Here are My Top 5 International Stock Picks

Why I am Avoiding TSLA?

1.Why I am avoiding $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ :TSLA bull thesis was based on two assumptions:TSLA would be exclusive provider of robo-taxi and autonomous robots for at least several years.We see that this is not going to happen.The structure in both industries are evolving similar to computers: A dominant operating system provider with several OEMs.It's clear that $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ intends to be that operating system provider in both industries and OEMs are ready to build on its infrastructure. $General Motors(GM)$ is already collaborating with NVDA on autonomy and there are formidable competitors in humanoid robots like Figure AI and Boston Dynamics.Though autonomy and hu
Why I am Avoiding TSLA?

TTD: My Top Growth Stock

1. $Trade Desk Inc.(TTD)$ is my top growth stock pick now. It's dominating advertising on the open internet. The market massively discounts its future growth and runway at 30 times forward earnings. Here is my full investment thesis: Image2.What does TTD do?It's a giant in programmatic advertising.It's basically serving ads on the internet through auctions facilitated by ad exchanges and tracking the performance data to enhance performance of further biddings.Here, CEO Jeff Green explains it:3. How does $Trade Desk Inc.(TTD)$ do that?It owns and operates a Demand Side Platform (DSP).In the open internet, there are millions of ad spot providers, from blogs to video streaming platforms.They can't sell ads ind
TTD: My Top Growth Stock

Here is Why GOOG is a Great Opportunity Now

1. $Alphabet(GOOG)$ is now the cheapest mega-cap stock.It has the fastest growing cloud unit, the most efficient AI and a cash-cow advertising business.The market grossly underestimates its potential at 18 times forward earnings.Here is why GOOG is a great opportunity now: 🧵Image2. $Alphabet(GOOG)$ is still growing at a rapid pace despite its sheer size. It's been growing revenue at 17% and net income at a staggering 25% CAGR in the last five years. It's now discounted because the market believes the search will die. This is not the case. Let me explain:Image3.GOOG search volume is still growing...Despite the worries about AI's taking over the search, Google's annual search volume passed 5 trillion for th
Here is Why GOOG is a Great Opportunity Now

.SPX: The Reason was US Debt

US debt refinancing is the only reasonable explanation this administration is bluntly crashing the market.The yields rallied since Fed started to cut rates in last September. The reason was US debt.Investors knew $9 trillion would be maturing this year and refinancing would be inflationary because rates were high. Either Fed needed to step in and buy the government debt or government would need to refinance at higher rates.Both are inflationary so yields rallied.There is only one way out Trump admin sees: Induce a recession, push the Fed to cut and refinance at lower rates.It’s great if it works, but there is the down side…If inflation goes out of control because of tariffs, you’ll get your recession but inflation will remain high and you will have a stagflation…They are playing with fire…
.SPX: The Reason was US Debt

AMZN: This is Why AMZN will be the First $10 Trillion Company

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some trading analysis with you!! $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ has a giant supply chain and delivery network.This is composed of fulfillment centers, sortation centers, delivery stations and hubs.This network allows Amazon to ship items in 1 day to 80% of the US.This network is impossible to match in the short or medium term.ImageIn conclusion:Amazon aggressively uses robots to replace human workers in its 110 warehouses.Together, warehouses and robots, require $100 billion investment excluding failure costs.Add the supply chain, it’s impossible to penetrate its moat.This is why AMZN will be the first $10 trillion company.Image
AMZN: This is Why AMZN will be the First $10 Trillion Company

AMSL: Huge Potential to Buy!

$ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ lithography system orders hit all time highs last quarter.Yet, the stock is down 25% in the last twelve months.Meanwhile TSMC announced 3 new plants in US and it’s expanding in Japan and EU.They will have to order more systems.Why the hell people keep selling $ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ ?ImageHere is my full investment thesis: 🧵1/ What does ASML do?It's the sole manufacturer of Extreme-Ultraviolet Lithography Machines (EUVL) needed for manufacturing cutting edge chips.In short these are the machines enabling foundries like TSMC to etch microscopic circuits on silicon.Here is how they work:2/ ASML has 100% market share in EUVL.It started developing this technology back in 1990s. It took
AMSL: Huge Potential to Buy!

Here are 10 High-quality, UUndervalued Stocks

Market is now at extreme fear territory and it's giving away many bargains.Here are 10 high-quality, undervalued stocks:1. $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ Forward P/E: 33 Gross Margin: 48% 5 Year Revenue CAGR: 14%Market leader in e-commerce and cloud computing trading at its lowest valuation in a decade. Given the growth estimates, its cloud business will alone generate over $360 billion revenue in 2030.This is an invincible company the market is giving away because extreme fear.Image2. $Alphabet(GOOG)$ Forward P/E: 19Gross Margin: 58% 5 Year Revenue CAGR: 17%Its search volume is growing despite the fears and bulk of the search is now made up of commercial queries with high purchase intent. It also has the fastest gro
Here are 10 High-quality, UUndervalued Stocks

GOOG: The Undervauled AI Giant

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some trading analysis with you!1. $Alphabet(GOOG)$ - Search volume is increasing.- Youtube growth remains robust.- It has the fastest growing cloud unit.Yet, it's trading at its lowest valuation since early 2023.It's literally free money at these levels.Image2.What should investors do?Well, there is no definitive prescription, only some suggestions:- Avoid popular sectors.- Don't overpay for growth.- Overweight defensive businesses.- Diversify into different asset classes.You can't time the crash but you can prepare.Follow me to learn more about analysis!!
GOOG: The Undervauled AI Giant

HIMS Follows the AMZN's Playbook

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some trading ideas with you!1. $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ is following the $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ playbook:More, cheaper, faster…It’s rapidly launching into new markets, offering cheaper prices and you can get your personalized treatment in days.This is a powerful growth engine. $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ will be a $100 billion company.2. $MercadoLibre(MELI)$ and $Nu Holdings Ltd.(NU)$ both are still amazing opportunities. $MercadoLibre(MELI)$ still has 15 more countries to expand to in
HIMS Follows the AMZN's Playbook

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