$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ $GraniteShares 2x Long COIN Daily ETF(CONL)$ $LEVERAGE SHARES 2X LONG COIN DAILY ETF(COIG)$ 

Regulation tail winds and an options blitz have pushed Coinbase into its sharpest rally since listing, yet the real breakout still hinges on a single monthly close.

🤖🚀⚡ COIN’s $345 Launchpad, Options Whales Eye $421 and Beyond ⚡🚀🤖

26Jun25, 🇳🇿NZ Time

📰 Market Pulse

Coinbase closed Tuesday at $348.73, up 12% on the day and roughly 40% over the week, topping the S&P 500 volume board with 22.7 m shares. Price tagged a fresh 52 week high at $369.25 and reclaimed the June 2022 supply shelf at $326.

🔥 Fundamental Engine

Stablecoins already deliver about 30% of Coinbase’s net transaction revenue, and Senate passage of the GENIUS Act sets a Federal Reserve backed framework that de-risks that stream. Benchmark raised its price target to $421, calling Coinbase “the premier on shore venue to monetise stablecoin growth.” Cash on hand in Q1 25 sits at $8.1 b, funding perpetual futures, global expansion and new staking products. Fun fact, COIN is the only pure play crypto company listed in the S&P 500 Index, forcing passive funds to buy on every rebalance.

⚡ Technical Trajectory

Monthly linear chart shows price pressing the 0.786 Fibonacci retrace at $344.37. A June close above that gate opens the 0.886 at $384.17, then the full cycle retrace at $429.54. Weekly RSI at 83 is stretched but not extreme versus the 2021 blow off top at 91. Support levels are $345, then $326 and $255.

💥 Options and Capital Flow

A $650 k print of 18 Jul $400 calls landed at the open, 10% OTM with 22 days to expiry. Jul 11 $330 call blocks have pushed bullish premium above $10 m, while put flow in that strip is zero. Open interest clusters at 330, 350 and 400 suggest a gamma squeeze if price settles above 350.

🎯 Peer Snapshot and Analyst Scorecard

COIN Avg Vol: 11.9 m 1 Week Move: +40% Rating: 🟢🟢🟢 High PT: $600

HOOD Avg Vol: 32.8 m 1 Week Move: +8% Rating: 🟢🟢🟡 High PT: $86

MSTR Avg Vol: 3.1 m 1 Week Move: +15% Rating: 🟢🟢🟡 High PT: $2,145

Liquidity and momentum crown COIN the leader among crypto equities.

🤖 Historical Echo and Macro Frame

The last time Coinbase posted back to back 30% monthly gains, October 2021, price ran another 50% as Bitcoin set all time highs. Today the backdrop is stronger, with institutional BTC ETFs, Circle’s IPO buzz and bipartisan regulatory clarity.

🚨 Scenarios and Catalysts

Bull 60%, a monthly close above $345 propels price to $384 then $429 as USDC fees scale and Bitcoin targets $120 k.

Base 25%, price chops $345 to $326 while the House debates GENIUS details.

Bear 15%, an adverse SEC ruling or macro risk off pulls price toward $255.

Key catalysts on the radar include the House GENIUS vote window, early August earnings, Bitcoin clearing $110 k, MiCA rollout in Europe and the MSCI mega cap upgrade review.

🌟 What to Watch

Daily closes versus the 8 EMA, now $337, for trend health.

Implied volatility shift once the 11 Jul option wall rolls off.

Stablecoin reserve disclosures from Tether and Circle that could steer wallet flow toward Coinbase.

✅ Risk and Mitigation

Crypto beta cuts both ways, a 1% Bitcoin move has historically moved COIN about 1.7%. Manage COIN or CONL, the 1.5 times leveraged note tracking COIN, with modest size, trail stops under $345 and scale out at each Fibonacci extension.

🗞️ Contrarian Insight

Overbought readings scare some chartists, yet during the 2021 analogue COIN rallied another 32% before peaking. Momentum can stay hot longer than expected in parabolic phases.

🏁 Conclusion and Game Plan

COIN stands at a decisive crossroads, backed by record call flow, regulatory clarity, and a textbook Fibonacci roadmap. A monthly close above $345 confirms bullish continuation toward $384 then $429, while a breach below $326 warns of a retrace toward $255. Short term traders can frame risk around the $345 pivot, scaling profits at each extension, whereas long term investors may view volatility driven pullbacks into the $300 zone as strategic accumulation ahead of Q2 earnings and a potential MSCI mega cap upgrade. The reward to risk still skews firmly to the upside as capital rotation accelerates into crypto equities.

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