$Apple(AAPL)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$ 🚨🔔 Liquidity is gushing into equities again, with the 64th global rate cut of 2025 lighting a fuse under risk assets. Apple still lags, yet a perfect storm of undervalued fundamentals, fresh technical ignition, and July’s historically bullish flow now blends into the most asymmetric setup on my terminal.

🤖🚀⚡ 03Jul25, 🇳🇿NZ Time Apple’s July Redemption Arc: can a 64 cut macro tailwind turn this laggard into July’s leader? ⚡🚀🤖

I’m kicking off July with the question on every desk: can Apple sprint from −17.01 % YTD into pole position while funds rotate out of mega-cap tech? Nvidia and Microsoft sagged, UNH surged 4.5 %, and healthcare soaked up fresh capital. Yet Apple ripped above every near-term moving average in one thrust. Price tagged $211.59, up 2.5 % from Tuesday’s close, cleared the 50 day line that capped bounces since March, and carved a textbook Wyckoff spring.

With the Nasdaq 100’s July record averaging +2.56 % over the past decade, 2024 the lone red year, and a 27 Jun–23 Jul window averaging +4.05 % with an 85 % hit rate, I’m mapping this setup from the 1 minute chart to the macro view. Apple was already above the $210 Sunday pivot and now carries momentum to reclaim leadership.

📊 Technical Pulse

Price: $211.59, +2.5 % from Tuesday’s close

Weekly MA stack: MA5 $202.81, MA10 $202.53, MA20 $209.71, MA30 $219.79; holding $209.71 keeps the higher-low chain intact

Weekly RSI-6 sits at 59.5, and the daily MACD printed its first green bar since May

On the 5 minute Heikin Ashi a pennant tightens beneath $213.34; a clean break targets $217, then $222 on volume

The 1 minute chart shows compression after a possible double top at $213.34, yet the 21 EMA props buyers

Gap support at $211.70 must hold to confirm continuation

💸 Options & Short Data

Put-call ratio: 0.72, favouring calls

Short float: 0.67 % or 100.23 M shares, only 1.7 days to cover

Unusual flow: 15 Aug $230 calls traded at $2.25 with open interest up 18 %, hinting at institutional positioning for a mid-August push

🧠 Fundamental Canvas

Forward P E sits at 24, shoulder-to-shoulder with Meta’s 23, while Apple still generates about $108 B in annual free cash flow

Jefferies upgraded Apple to Hold from Underperform, lifting the target to $188.32 from $170.62 and citing stronger iPhone demand

Counterpoint reports iPhone sell-through up 15 % YoY in April + May, the best streak since Q3 21, reinforcing the earnings-beat thesis

Morgan Stanley’s bull case stands at $273, and Goldman recently raised its base case to $253 on “Apple Intelligence” upside

🔍 Catalysts on Deck

• Foldable-iPhone prototypes are in P1 testing; EVT expected late 2025, implying a 2H26 debut

• Apple is negotiating bespoke language models with OpenAI and Anthropic for on-device Siri; an SLA would be a sentiment accelerant

• The 10 Jul launch event (US pre-market) could ignite momentum if hardware-AI fusion headlines break

🌏 Macro & Sector Rotation Context

Global markets logged 64 policy-rate cuts YTD, the fastest easing streak since 2020; liquidity stays supportive even as capital rotates into healthcare winners UNH, AMGN, MRK, JNJ

Top-10 US tech names reached $20.5 T in market cap on 30 Jun, half parked in Nvidia, Microsoft, and Apple; they clawed back roughly $3 T since the April tariff scare and added more than $12 T over three years, a 23 % CAGR since 2012

🗺️ Magnificent Seven Scoreboard

YTD laggards: Tesla −25 %, Apple −17.01 %, Alphabet −4.8 %

Leaders: Nvidia +86 %, Meta +41 %, Microsoft +28 %, Amazon +16 %

With Apple’s valuation now mirroring Meta’s, mean reversion makes Apple July’s cleanest catch-up play

🏦 Hedge-Fund & Street Heat Map

Street consensus target: $235.60 (high $315, low $142) for an 11 % uplift

Recent 13F filings show Polar Capital and Rothschild adding during the Q2 dip; Goldman’s new $253 target underscores AI-driven optionality

📅 Watchlist

• $211.70 gap retest must hold to preserve the bullish structure

• A break of $213.34 unlocks $217, then $222

• 31 Jul earnings, implied move 4.2 % and tightening

• Any formal SLA on external LLMs for Siri

• Option-interest walls at $215 and $230 into August expiry

🎯 Trade Idea

I’m eyeing the 15 Aug $230 calls near $2.25; confirmation above $217 on strong volume would trigger an entry with a $205 mental stop and targets near $230 to $235. A break of $209 would send me back to the sidelines, ready to reload closer to $202 where weekly EMA support clusters.

🚦 Risk Matrix

China contributes roughly 19 % of revenue, leaving Apple exposed to tariff turbulence

A hawkish Fed pivot could compress multiples, although the global easing trend cushions that risk

Delays to Siri AI or foldable-iPhone timelines would dampen sentiment

🔮 Scenario Lens

• Bull case 60 %: price clears $217, earnings beat, acceleration toward $235

• Base case 30 %: price oscillates between $202 and $220, theta scalps offset premium

• Bear case 10 %: macro shock drags price to $190 once $202 fails

🚀 Conclusion and Edge

Apple sits above every short-term average, trades at Meta-level multiples, and faces a catalyst trifecta over the next four weeks. Seasonally bullish flows, a 64-cut liquidity backdrop, and resurgent iPhone momentum skew risk-reward upward; downside is contained while upside toward $235 stays wide open. I remain patient under $217 yet stand ready to strike the instant the tape confirms.

🤔 Your Move

Does defensive rotation persist, or does Apple sprint to erase its YTD gap? With forward P E parity between Apple and Meta, which one tops your July playbook? Nasdaq’s mid-summer pattern is frequently bullish; will 2025 extend the streak?

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Trade like a boss, Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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