$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ 🚗💡🔥 Lisa’s Pullback Playbook: Why I’m Watching $AMD for the Next Strategic Add 🔥💡🚗
Momentum has cooled just enough to give this chip race a proper breather. With $AMD down 4% on the week, I see Lisa Su quietly reversing the car into earnings season, and that’s exactly the kind of technical reset I’ve been waiting for.
After a 100% rally off the bottom, this pullback feels constructive, not corrective. The weekly chart is retesting the 100MA around $125 while price pulls in toward a flattening 200-day moving average. That’s a classic bull flag structure, and for me, it’s an ideal zone to build or reinitiate positions.
I’m looking to build my $AMD weighting from 3.5% back toward 5%+, having already taken profit on strength above $140. If price stabilises in this $125 to $128 zone, I’ll be ready to step back in with size.
💼 Analyst Outlook: Divergent Views Ahead of Earnings
Truist’s William Stein, ranked 5th out of more than 9,700 analysts on TipRanks, called AMD’s Q2 earnings on 05Aug25 the “next significant catalyst.” While he withheld directional conviction, citing uncertainty around customer adoption, he maintained a Hold rating with a $111 price target. Stein pointed to confusion over whether customers like AWS are adopting AMD GPUs on technical merit or as a strategic move to counterbalance Nvidia’s pricing power.
He also addressed the mid-quarter controversy around AWS logos disappearing from AMD’s slide deck, suggesting that many clients simply prefer to control the timing and venue of partnership announcements. It’s not necessarily a red flag, but it does introduce ambiguity.
📊 Earnings Forecast: Strong Revenue Growth, Compressed EPS
Wall Street expects AMD to post $0.49 EPS, a 29% YoY decline, despite a 27% revenue jump to $7.41B. The market’s focus will be on gross margins, AI adoption, and data center sales acceleration. A strong top-line beat paired with improving margin trajectory could challenge the current Hold consensus.
Over the past month, AMD shares have surged 16% on excitement around its MI350 and MI400 chips. These next-gen GPUs are gaining adoption among hyperscalers and could mark a turning point in the AI inference race, where Nvidia has long dominated.
📈 Valuation and Buy Ratings: Signals Are Mixed
Citi’s Christopher Danely just raised his AMD price target from $120 to $145 while keeping a Hold rating. He cited sector-wide improvement in demand and noted that the anticipated tariff drag has not materialised. His preview implies a more constructive setup across semis, even if AMD’s stock already reflects a lot of good news.
Overall, analysts remain moderately bullish. AMD holds 24 Buy ratings and 10 Holds, with an average target of $133.62. That suggests the stock is fairly valued at current levels, but positive earnings momentum could shift the sentiment.
🔥 Strategic Positioning in the AI Race
At the recent ‘Advancing AI’ event, AMD directly addressed investor concerns about falling behind Nvidia. By showcasing the MI350 and MI400 roadmap, AMD positioned itself as a credible contender for hyperscale AI deployment. The debate now turns on whether the current momentum is sticky or fleeting.
Mizuho Securities’ Vijay Rakesh remains firmly bullish. He reiterated his Buy rating, pointing to the 65% rally over the past 3 months and strong GPU demand. If AMD continues to deliver on inference performance and pricing leverage, it could start to carve out meaningful share.
🔎 What I’m Watching Next
• Q2 earnings on 05Aug25 for margin, guidance, and data center commentary
• Price behaviour at the 100MA ($125) and 200-day ($127–$128) for entry signals
• GPU adoption updates and commentary from cloud partners like AWS and Azure
• Potential divergence between top-line growth and valuation ceiling
👁️ Contrarian Angle
While most focus on Nvidia as the AI front-runner, I believe AMD’s strategic positioning is starting to mirror Tesla’s move in the EV market, overlooked early, but quietly scaling. If institutional allocations shift in response to AMD’s margin recovery and GPU traction, the narrative could pivot sharply.
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