🧠 ASML & TSM Earnings: Time to Ride the AI Boom Again?

All eyes are on ASML (Wed) and TSMC (Thu)—and for good reason. TSMC just posted +39% YoY June sales, fueled by relentless demand from NVIDIA and hyperscalers. That number crushes expectations and suggests their 2Q25 print could beat and guide higher.

📈 TSMC Outlook:

Stronger-than-expected CapEx pull-through from AI server builds.

High-margin N3E process ramping up.

$TSM could reclaim $175 if EPS and guidance align. Look for revenue surprise + upward FY guide.

Risk: High expectations = low margin for error.

🔬 ASML Outlook:

Q1 miss spooked investors, but insiders hint at rebound in EUV orders.

If they announce an uptick in China/TSMC orders + better 2H forecast, $ASML can break above $820.

Risk: Any comment on sluggish memory demand = sell trigger.

🧠 The Big Picture:

The AI boom isn't over—but we're entering the "prove it" phase. TSM and ASML are picks and shovels of the AI gold rush. If they both beat and guide higher, expect a sector-wide rally in $NVDA, $AVGO, $AMAT, $WOLF (post-chapter), and $ARM.

🧭 Strategy:

Long $TSM into earnings with tight stop (~$165).

Post-earnings lotto calls on $ASML if forward guidance jumps.

Hedge with $SOXX puts in case both disappoint.

Are you ready for a semiconductor supercycle 2.0?

I'm not a financial advisor. Trade wisely, Comrades!