As we head into the final stretch of 2025, markets feel restless. Volatility has picked up, rallies fade faster, and every headline seems to question whether the Santa Rally still exists. But stepping back, this does not feel like panic. It feels like transition. After a strong year driven by rate cuts, AI momentum, and returning liquidity, markets are no longer pricing upside blindly. Instead, they are digesting gains, resetting positions, and waiting for clarity. That is why December has been choppy rather than directional. Several forces are colliding at once: Thin year-end liquidity amplifying moves Heavy options positioning influencing daily price action Global macro uncertainty lingering, especially around policy shifts This creates an environment where price behaviour matters more t

Tesla just printed a new all-time closing high, and the question traders are quietly asking is no longer Why is TSLA going up?  but What assumptions are now priced in? At these levels, Tesla is no longer trading as a car company. It is being valued as a platform bet on autonomy, robotics, and AI-driven operating leverage. That distinction matters. 📈 Why Tesla Keeps Pushing Higher This rally is not purely momentum-driven. Several structural narratives are reinforcing price: Autonomy optionality: Updates around robotaxis and Optimus are reviving long-dated growth assumptions Liquidity tailwinds: Risk appetite remains strong despite macro noise Positioning: Shorts and underweight funds continue to get squeezed on strength Price action tells the story clearly: dips are being bought quickl

Yesterday's action was messy on the surface, but very informative underneath. Tech weakness, crypto volatility, and rotation headlines made it feel chaotic, yet this is exactly the kind of tape where pick quality matters more than bravado. 🧠 Big Picture: What's Really Driving Markets? Rates & Macro: Bond yields remain the boss. Until yields decisively roll over, high-beta names will stay jumpy. Crypto: BTC weakness is pressuring proxies, but this still looks like distribution → reset, not a structural breakdown. Rotation: Capital is moving within risk assets, not fleeing the market entirely. This is not an all-in or all-out market. It is a range + reaction market. 📌 What I'm Watching (and How) 🟢 Watching / Tactical Exposure NVDA – Still the market's risk barometer. I prefer selling pre

$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$   As 2025 winds down, it feels like the right moment to step back and be honest about the trades that defined the year for me, not just the wins, but the ones that tested discipline, patience, and ego. This was a year where markets rewarded timing and punished complacency. AI mania, crypto euphoria, sudden macro shifts, and violent rotations made it impossible to coast. You either managed risk actively, or the market managed you. Here are my two most memorable trades of 2025, for very different reasons: The Best Trade: Selling MSTR Before the Drop My most memorable win this year was not a flashy multi-bagger. It was selling MSTR before it rolled over. MSTR had become one of the most crowded expressions of Bitcoin optimis

Trump's approval for Nvidia to resume H200 sales to China has injected fresh energy into a cooling AI sector. The after hours bounce was small, but the signal was big. This is the first real policy break in months, and traders now have a clear catalyst to anchor short term direction. Below is the clean breakdown of how the market may trade Nvidia in the coming sessions. 1. Why This Catalyst Matters China demand was never the issue. Policy blockage was. H200 carries higher margins and stronger upgrade cycles than the previous A series chips. Data center budgets for 2025 are still expanding, not contracting. The approval lowers headline risk and reduces fear premium in the entire AI basket. T

The BTC rebound has created a clean risk-on ripple across the crypto equity basket, and the moves in BMNR, CRCL and MSTR hint that positioning might have reached exhaustion on the downside. What matters now is the path of liquidity. If BTC holds above the 89K to 92K range, the next impulse zone opens toward 97K, with a potential late December test of 100K if volatility compresses. BMNR continues to trade as a leveraged beta play to BTC strength. A break above its recent lower-high structure points to 40 to 45 in a squeeze scenario. CRCL is still one of the cleanest AI x crypto infrastructure names. If BTC pushes for 95K, CRCL could retest the 12 to 14 zone as funding flows rotate back into high convexity names. MSTR remains the institutional torque for BTC. As long as BTC sustains higher l

$S&P 500(.SPX)$   The December S&P 500 rebalance is never just a reshuffling exercise. It is a window into how institutional capital is preparing for the next cycle. With CRH, Carvana and Comfort Systems confirmed for inclusion, the market is signalling a preference for companies showing margin expansion, operational resilience and clear revenue visibility. This is a decisive shift from the liquidity driven trades of early 2025. Looking beyond the confirmed names, the next wave of possible entrants hints at a deeper structural rotation. 1. Cheniere Energy (LNG) Cheniere stands out as the strongest energy candidate. Rising global demand for natural gas, combined with new US export infrastructure, position

NVIDIA's rebound to 185 is not just a bounce. It is a stress test of market conviction after weeks of AI volatility. The CFOs denial of an AI bubble aligns with the data. AI chip supply is still absorbed by new data center construction rather than replacement cycles. This means the demand curve is still expanding, not plateauing. Here is the key metric to watch: global data center capex is projected to reach 3 to 4 trillion by 2030. If this trajectory holds, NVIDIA remains the primary beneficiary across GPUs, networking, and accelerated computing. Valuations look rich on the surface, but the growth runway has not peaked. Short term, 185 to 190 is a resistance zone tied to ETF outflows and rotation into small caps. Medium term, if earnings revisions stay positive, NVIDIA can reclaim 200 wit

MSTR popping back above 180 looks impressive, but the real story is in the math. The company now trades at a market cap smaller than the value of the BTC it holds, which implies a clear discount. That alone makes MSTR interesting for medium-term swing traders. But the short-term picture still depends entirely on BTC. If Bitcoin holds above 90K, MSTR can reclaim 200 easily. If BTC slips toward the mid 80s, MSTR could sink back toward 160. What I am watching now: the crypto beta stocks. RZLV and ORBS tend to amplify crypto strength, while COIN and MARA confirm overall sentiment. If all four show sustained bid pressure, MSTR becomes a safer bet. If they turn red first, MSTR usually follows. My view: Undervalued on paper, but direction will be decided by BTC. Good for tactical trades. Not for

The second trading day of December opened strong, but the real question is whether the rally can sustain itself or if this is just a classic early-month bounce before volatility returns. The setup for December is still supportive. Real yields have softened, liquidity has improved, and fund managers who underperformed in 2025 are chasing returns into year end. Seasonality favours strength when November ends weak, and the market has followed that script so far. For me, I am watching two themes very closely: 1. High beta tech If Nasdaq holds above 23000, a melt-up is still possible. Mega caps like MSFT and GOOGL continue to pull the index higher. Their strength decides if December closes green. 2. High conviction small caps Names like RZLV, RGTI, and CRCL still have asymmetric upside due to c

Morgan Stanley paints a clean macro runway for 2026 with supportive policy, strong earnings and resilient growth. But markets rarely follow the script. The biggest risk is the assumption that all risk assets will rise together. The next cycle will reward precision, not passive optimism. 1. The Prediction Most Likely to Fail: A Smooth Macro and Even Rally Across Risk Assets The idea that everything will move up in harmony is the weakest point. Bond markets are already signalling stress, supply chains look vulnerable, and geopolitical catalysts can flip risk sentiment quickly. Tech valuations sit at premium levels, and any slowdown in cloud spending or AI hardware demand will hit megacaps first. The soft landing story can wobble if inflation stays sticky or if the Federal Reserve pivots too

BTC snapping back above 90K in one week feels powerful, but the structure behind this rally is still mixed. ETF inflows have not returned, and price is rising without strong institutional support. Historically, this pattern creates a fragile advance that can snap quickly when liquidity dries up. The key zone is still 88K to 90K. Hold above it and the market can push toward 95K and possibly 100K before year end. Lose it, and a fast 10 to 15 percent washout is likely, because leveraged long positions remain elevated. How this affects the stocks I am tracking 1) RZLV (AI and data infrastructure) RZLV benefits from high risk appetite. When BTC stabilises above major levels, liquidity often rotates into smaller tech names. If crypto stays firm, RZLV can reclaim momentum, especially with the com

Alibaba rolling out its Quark AI glasses at 268 USD and 529 USD is a clear signal that China wants its own consumer AI wave. This price point massively undercuts Meta and shows that Alibaba is playing the volume game rather than the luxury game. The bigger question is whether this is the start of a full AI ecosystem or just another hardware experiment. Investors will watch three things closely: 1. Adoption curve If Chinese consumers pick up affordable AI glasses faster than the US market did, Alibaba could own the first large consumer AI hardware base outside the West. 2. Link to cloud and model inference Cheap hardware only matters if it anchors users to Alibaba Cloud and Tongyi Qianwen AI services. If Alibaba can tie hardware to recurring cloud revenue, the stock gains real support. 3. V

$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$   November broke its old reputation, closing red despite a strong year to date. But the data behind this pattern is far more interesting. In every year where the S and P 500 gained at least 10 percent from Jan to Oct and November turned negative, December delivered positive returns across the board. Average December gain: 4 percent. Average drawdown: 1.7 percent. Zero negative outcomes. The logic is simple. A negative November often resets positioning. Funds de risk, short term traders close books, and liquidity thins. Once December starts, pension flows, buybacks, and year end window dressing push markets upward. This structural tailwind has been consistent for decades. So what does this mean for the stocks we watch? CR

Bitcoin snapping back above 90K in one week shows that the bull cycle is not dead yet. At the same time, the latest ETF outflows remind us that this move is not fully backed by fresh institutional money. Price is strong, but the foundation is not perfect. That is exactly the type of environment that creates opportunity for traders. Scenario 1 BTC holds 88K to 90K and pushes toward 100K In this case the market treats the recent pullback as a shakeout. Likely winners: High beta miners such as RIOT, MARA, CLSK, HUT Leverage plays such as MSTR Exchanges such as COIN which benefit from volume and interest Smaller names such as ORBS that ride the broader crypto wave Here I would expect miners to move two to four times BTC percentage moves, and COIN to grind higher as long as volatility stays ele