$Netflix(NFLX)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ $Walt Disney(DIS)$ 🔥📺🔥 $NFLX Faces Its Ultimate Earnings Test This Week 🔥📺🔥

I’ve got my eyes on one of the market’s top momentum plays heading into Thursday. Netflix reports earnings post-market on 17Jul25 ET, and the setup is anything but chill.

Price has pulled back to the lower bound of a well-defined rising channel, a level that’s acted as springboard support three times since April. RSI has cooled to 48, resetting momentum without signalling exhaustion. Meanwhile, Ichimoku support sits just beneath, and the stock remains comfortably above its 51-day moving average. We’re consolidating near $1,245, right as BMO raises its target to $1,425.

🍿 Double-Digit Growth, On All Fronts

Consensus is bullish. Street estimates point to $11.04B in Q2 revenue (+15.5% YoY) and EPS of $7.07 (+44.9%), a sharp acceleration from Q1. Operating income growth in 2024 was already up 50%, and if the ad-supported tier continues to scale, 2025 could be another blockbuster year.

Netflix’s bullish catalysts are stacking fast:

• Three-part finale of Stranger Things starts on Thanksgiving

• Wednesday returns in split drops

• Squid Game season 3 already live

• NFL Christmas Day, WWE Raw, and Taylor vs. Serrano add live-event buzz

• Advertising revenue projected to double again to $3B in 2025

Ad-tier traction is a major sleeper catalyst. With 94M monthly active users on the platform and around 40M using the ad-tier, Netflix is quietly becoming an advertising juggernaut. Analysts now model 58.5M ad-tier subscribers by year-end. That’s a massive opportunity to layer in monetisation via programmatic platforms like Google and The Trade Desk, and Netflix has been investing in its own in-house ad tech.

🎯 Price Targets Race to Catch the Stock

BMO Capital raised its PT to $1,425. KeyBanc went to $1,390, citing FX tailwinds and strong guidance. Barclays upped theirs to $1,100 but flagged uncertainty due to Netflix no longer disclosing subscriber or ARPU metrics.

And yet, the market is still pricing upside. Why?

Netflix is threading the needle between pricing power, live-event scale, and global growth. Margins are expanding as the dollar weakens, and management has hinted at revising its 2025 guidance upward. The previous range of $43.5B to $44.5B in revenue may soon be due for a hike.

🧠 Worth noting:

With $NFLX trading above $1,250, the conversation around a potential stock split may start to resurface. While there’s been no indication from management, and the company hasn’t split shares since its 7-for-1 move in 2015, the optics of accessibility could come into play if momentum persists. In an era where liquidity attracts flows and fractionalisation drives engagement, a well-timed split could serve as a psychological accelerant, especially if Netflix is aiming to broaden its retail investor base ahead of platform monetisation scale in ads and live sports.

⚠️ The Wildcard: Tariffs and Regulatory Risk

Netflix isn’t immune to macro headwinds. Rising tariffs remain a drag on global cost structures, and the insider trading investigation in South Korea around SBS’s Netflix-linked content deal has raised regulatory eyebrows. While it may not materially affect Netflix’s Q2 results, it’s a reminder that growth comes with geopolitical baggage.

That said, with content dominance, ad monetisation tailwinds, and live sports drawing fresh eyeballs, the near-term risk appears more about valuation digestion than structural weakness.

📊 Chart Talk

Price is currently holding above the May trendline, and the recent dip may be a classic higher low setup within a broader bullish structure. Weekly RSI remains near 61, MACD is still positively stacked, and the 10W, 30W, and 50W moving averages are trending cleanly upward. A confirmed bounce on earnings could unlock the path to $1,341 first, then $1,425 as the next major extension.

If we break below $1,225 with volume, that’d trigger a technical caution flag. But for now, this remains a textbook retest inside an orderly uptrend.

🧠 Final Thought

This is Netflix’s quarter to prove that it’s not just a content king, but a business model transformer. Advertising, sports, and pricing power are all inflecting upward. And with sentiment, fundamentals, and technicals all in sync, any upside surprise could turn this earnings release into a rocket launch.

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