🔍 Alphabet Earnings Preview: Is $GOOGL Still a Buy at $185?

All eyes are on Google's Q2 earnings dropping July 23. With the stock hovering around $185—its estimated fair value based on 13.55x FY26 EV/EBITDA—the big question is whether it still offers upside from here.

📊 What to Expect:

Revenue Estimate: $93.75B

EPS Forecast: $2.25

Focus Areas: Google Cloud margin expansion, Search stability, YouTube ad growth, and of course… Gemini AI integration traction.

The Street is anticipating strong profit margins and topline acceleration, especially in Google Cloud. This division grew 28% YoY last quarter and may surprise again—especially as AWS and Azure face price competition.

🧠 Predictive Scenarios (Post-Earnings)

Bullish Case (60% probability):

EPS > $2.30, Cloud beats, Search stable.

AI investments show clear monetisation path.

Price pops to $192–195 within 2 sessions.

Base Case (30%):

Inline results, neutral forward guidance.

Consolidation in the $180–185 range.

Bearish Case (10%):

Cloud disappoints or AI commentary underwhelms.

Price could dip back to $175 support.

🎯 Trade Plan

Swing Buy Zone: $178–180

Breakout Buy: >$188 on earnings volume

Lotto: $GOOGL 190c (Jul 26 expiry)

Hedge: SPY put spread if macro turns risk-off

📌 Bottom Line: At $185, $GOOGL is not cheap—but still fairly priced for what could be one of the most resilient AI stories in Big Tech. Long-term investors can layer in slowly, while traders should prepare for a 3–5% IV move post-print.

I'm not a financial advisor. Trade wisely, Comrades!