$Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$ $Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$ $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ $CME Ether - main 2507(ETHmain)$ 💡📊🧩 The DNA of a Stablecoin Giant: Does $CRCL Still Justify a $230+ Valuation? 🧩📊💡

$CRCL is caught in a valuation crossfire. On one hand, Bernstein sees it as a regulated rails powerhouse with a target above $230. On the other, Compass Point downgraded it to Sell and Mizuho warns it’s worth less than half that.

This divergence of opinion reflects the deeper question: Can Circle sustain profitability once Fed rate cuts arrive and yield-derived earnings shrink? The stablecoin float has been a tailwind, but how durable is it when regulation intensifies and interest income contracts?

Technically, the rising head and shoulders is undeniable. If $208 gives way, $181 is in sight. If bulls can defend that neckline, we may test $240 again. But make no mistake, this is a macro-sensitive asset sitting right at the intersection of crypto policy and fintech monetization.

The 60-minute chart shows a drawdown of over 30% in just three sessions, hitting extreme oversold levels. Yet someone’s betting on the bounce: nearly $1.8M was loaded into the $217.5C 4DTE contract before close. That kind of premium isn’t casual.

I’m not exposed here, just monitoring it closely as a trader and macro observer.

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