$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $Krispy Kreme, Inc.(DNUT)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ 📉⚖️🔻 TSLA at the Crossroads: Approval Falling, Bears Pressing, and Tariff Storms Brewing 🔻⚖️📉

I’m fully convinced that $TSLA is entering one of its most critical junctures of the year. Price action, political pressure, and historical data are all converging right now, and I believe the market’s about to force a decision. The stock is down 23% YTD, just broke below $305, and is now teetering at the bottom edge of a massive symmetrical triangle on the daily chart. And the timing couldn’t be worse: the upcoming week has historically been Tesla’s weakest of the entire year.

🔍 Setup

At $303.24, $TSLA is sitting right on a knife edge. Price has breached the rising base of the triangle and is resting against key volume support around $301–$295. Beneath that? A thin zone down to $278 and even $255, backed by strong historical volume imbalance. Today’s Fibonacci confluence confirms it: we’re hovering right at the 0.5 level, and RSI is tipping under 49. From a structural standpoint, this is where failed support flips into acceleration.

📊 Market Context: Risk-On Elsewhere

According to Bloomberg, while $TSLA is slipping, the broader tape is grinding higher:

• 🇺🇸 $SPX and $NDX both on track for a fourth straight day of gains, riding post-earnings momentum

• $GOOGL exploded higher after a strong Q2 print and a surprise capex boost

• Meme stocks are roaring back: $KSS, $OPEN, and $DNUT are all showing volume surges and Fintwit buzz

• But $TSLA? Musk warned of “rough quarters ahead” during the Q2 call, even as peers accelerate

In other words, this is not a market-wide selloff; it’s a Tesla-specific divergence that’s drawing blood at support.

💬 Trump Tariff Warning: 15–50% Looms

And if that wasn’t enough macro tension, Trump is now hinting at 15–50% tariffs on key imports, including EV parts, semiconductors, and battery materials. The policy clock is ticking toward August 1, and Tesla’s China and battery supply chain exposure leaves it wide open. The flow of bearish options reflects that risk; institutional desks aren’t waiting to find out if he’s bluffing.

📉 Elon’s Approval Collapse

Overlaying this is a political and sentiment shift. Elon Musk’s approval rating has cratered in recent weeks, falling below 33% after proposing a third-party bid and exiting White House advisory roles. Silver Bulletin polls show a sharp divergence; disapproval ratings are now above 55% and climbing. That creates reputational risk just as Tesla needs retail loyalty, policy favour, and brand credibility to hold.

🎯 Technical Trigger Zones

$303.24 is no-man’s land. Bulls need to reclaim $310 fast to avoid cascading into the $295–$278 gap. If that breaks, the next major support doesn’t arrive until $255. On the upside, a squeeze through $310 could target $326 (50DMA), but the burden of proof is now on buyers. Volume is rising into the breakdown, never a good sign for longs.

⚙️ Strategic Framing

Tesla is still trading at ~63x forward EPS. That’s defensible if FSD activation, energy storage, and Optimus ramp as planned, but right now, even Musk isn’t pretending the next few quarters will be smooth. The Q2 call underplayed every major growth vertical. Energy was brushed aside. Optimus was referenced briefly. And Semi remains a ghost in the product lineup. I believe this is a reset in narrative, but the market needs a reason to buy that story again.

🧠 What I’m Watching

• Will post-10am macro prints trigger a reversal or deepen the unwind?

• Do bulls defend the 0.5 Fib at $295, or does volume accelerate toward $278?

• Does options flow flip after the tariff narrative evolves?

• Are meme rotations stealing liquidity and attention from high-beta names like TSLA?

📌 Final Take

I believe $TSLA is at a pressure point with no room left for ambiguity. Bears are targeting a technical break, sentiment is eroding, political risks are mounting, and the seasonality data says the worst week of the year is about to begin. This setup isn’t just technical; it’s psychological, geopolitical, and cyclical. That’s when big moves happen. And whether this resolves up or down, I’ll be ready.

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