The current market momentum, driven by strong performance in the technology sector and supportive macro-political developments, raises several pertinent questions regarding Nvidia's trajectory and broader tech investment trends.

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📈 Will Big Tech Increase Capex?

Yes, it is highly likely that big tech firms will continue increasing capital expenditure in the near term, particularly in response to:

Rising demand for AI infrastructure, cloud services, and data center capacity.

Political tailwinds such as Trump’s recently announced “America AI Action Plan”, which pledges to ease regulations and accelerate AI and data center development. This is particularly significant for semiconductor and infrastructure companies.

Alphabet’s $10 billion capex, primarily targeting AI and compute infrastructure, may set a precedent that other firms (e.g., Meta, Amazon, Microsoft) follow, reinforcing the investment supercycle in data and AI.

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🧠 Is Nvidia’s Rebound Sustainable?

Nvidia’s rebound appears structurally supported, though the pace may moderate:

The stock's surge past $4 trillion in market capitalisation reflects its dominance in the AI and data center GPU space.

Strong partnerships (e.g., with AWS, Meta, and Microsoft), backlog demand for H100 and Blackwell chips, and the launch of next-gen platforms indicate robust fundamentals.

That said, valuation is increasingly stretched. The stock trades at high forward multiples, and future gains may depend more on earnings delivery than sentiment alone.

A consolidation phase around $170/share (split-adjusted) would be healthy and allow fundamentals to catch up.

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🔍 Can Nvidia Aim Higher or Will It Consolidate?

Two scenarios are possible in the short to medium term:

1. Bullish Case (Aim Higher)

If upcoming earnings (expected early August) exceed expectations and major clients confirm increased AI spend, Nvidia could push beyond $170, potentially testing $180–$190. Further catalysts include:

A positive regulatory environment under either Biden or Trump.

Expansion into new verticals (automotive AI, robotics, edge computing).

Accelerated adoption of Blackwell architecture.

2. Neutral-to-Bearish Case (Consolidation or Pullback)

If guidance is conservative, or if macro headwinds (e.g., interest rate concerns, China tensions) resurface, Nvidia may consolidate in the $160–$170 range or even pull back modestly.

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📊 Conclusion

Nvidia’s fundamentals remain extremely strong, and the macro and political environment currently favour continued growth in AI infrastructure. However, the stock may face short-term volatility and valuation-related pressures. A period of consolidation would not be unhealthy and could serve as a base for the next leg higher—particularly if capex trends across big tech continue accelerating.