S&P New High Again 🔥Extreme Greed: Avoid Summer Dip?

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have once again posted new all-time highs.

NASDAQ (.IXIC)

S&P 500 (.SPX)

With the Fear & Greed Index sitting in the “Greed” territory, many investors seem to be rushing into risk assets without hesitation.

But I’m not one of them.

While the dominant narrative may be bullish and perhaps justifiably so, I find myself leaning into selective skepticism.

My Core Investment Philosophy: “Buy Low, Sell High” But Not Every Low Is a Buy

Let’s start here: I believe in buying low and selling high. It’s a timeless principle, but it’s also one of the hardest to execute consistently, especially in a market driven by hype, algorithms, and short-term emotion. Importantly, not every dip is worth buying, and not every high is worth fearing.

It all comes down to context, conviction, and quality.

In my case, I don’t blindly jump into positions just because an asset is down. I ask questions like:

• What is the long-term fundamental outlook?

• Am I comfortable holding this through volatility?

• What role does it play in my portfolio?

• Am I chasing a trade or investing in a thesis?

Thinking About HIBS: Tempting Setup, But Misaligned With My Long-Term View

One ETF that caught my attention recently is the Direxion Daily S&P 500 High Beta Bear 3X Shares (HIBS).

Direxion Daily S&P 500 High Beta Bear 3X Shares (HIBS)

At first glance, HIBS looks extremely attractive from a contrarian perspective. Its price is sitting near multi-year lows, a natural consequence of the ongoing bull market. For a short-term swing trader or volatility chaser, this could be a prime opportunity to make a bet on a market pullback.

Here’s what HIBS actually does: it seeks to deliver 3x the inverse daily performance of the S&P 500 High Beta Index, which tracks the 100 stocks within the S&P 500 that have the highest sensitivity to market movements (i.e., the highest “beta” over the past year).

HIBS achieves this exposure through leveraged instruments like swaps, futures, and short positions. It’s highly volatile, very short-term in nature, and structurally designed to lose value over time due to decay and volatility drag. It's not a “buy-and-hold” ETF.

That alone makes me cautious.

But what’s more important is this: HIBS fundamentally represents a bet against the long-term trajectory of U.S. equities. And while I absolutely believe that this bull market will end and that a correction or even recession is overdue, I’m not comfortable making leveraged short bets against U.S. stocks.

Why?

Because I fundamentally believe that in the long run, U.S. companies will continue to grow, innovate, and create value. As the country develops, adapts to new technology, and benefits from productivity trends, the overall direction of the stock market is up. It doesn’t go up in a straight line but it does go up.

So even though HIBS looks like a potential "cheap" entry point now, it’s a low I’m not willing to buy. In fact, I’ve gone a step further: I’ve removed HIBS from my watchlist entirely. I’d rather not tempt myself into making a reactive or emotional trade based on fear or frustration. Discipline, not dopamine, drives my decisions.

What I’m Buying Instead

Rather than trying to time a correction with leveraged inverse ETFs, I’m focusing my capital on strategic hedges and dividend income-producing assets that fit my long-term view but offer some short-term protection.

One asset I’ve been accumulating recently is the iShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLH).

iShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLH)

Here’s why:

1. It’s a Hedge Against Recession

If we do enter a recession or even just a soft patch, long-duration Treasuries are likely to perform well. In times of economic stress, investors typically flee to safety, which drives bond prices higher (and yields lower). Having exposure to this segment gives my portfolio a cushion if equity markets stumble.

2. It Pays Me to Wait

Unlike HIBS, which requires perfect timing and punishes patience, TLH rewards holding with regular dividend payments. These dividend payments help me stay invested and allow me to reinvest in other opportunities or just let the money compound.

3. It Matches My Risk Tolerance

Treasuries aren’t risk-free but they’re far less volatile than leveraged inverse ETFs. TLH gives me exposure to potential upside in a downturn without the mental strain or timing pressure of something like HIBS.

Final Thoughts: Selective Discipline in a Euphoric Market

It’s easy to feel FOMO right now. The market is soaring, big tech is booming, and many investors are celebrating gains. But beneath the surface, there are reasons to be cautious:

• Valuations are stretched in many areas

• Inflation remains sticky in some sectors

• The Fed’s rate path remains uncertain

• Geopolitical tensions haven’t gone away

I'm not bearish, but I’m not blindly bullish either. I’m a realist and that means being selective. I don’t chase every dip or short every high. Instead, I try to build a resilient portfolio that reflects both optimism for the future and awareness of the present.

Because in the end, not every low is a buy and not every high is a sell.