📉 August Crash or Buy-the-Dip Opportunity? 🧠 Here's My Playbook
The S&P 500 ($SPY$) and Nasdaq 100 ($QQQ$) just notched four straight winning months.
Momentum is hot.
AI names are holding.
Rates are (mostly) stable.
But here’s the catch: August is historically tricky — and last year gave us a brutal reminder.
> So… are we due for another August shakeout? Or is this rally stronger than it looks?
Let’s break it down 👇
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📉 August Isn’t a Crash Month… Until It Is
Zooming out, August has one of the weakest seasonality profiles of the year.
According to historical SPY data:
August averages a negative return over the past 10 years
2023 saw a mid-month drop of -5.2%
2015 and 2011 brought steep selloffs after geopolitical or Fed surprises
Volatility tends to spike mid-to-late August — especially when markets have already run hard from May–July.
Why?
📆 Thin liquidity,
💼 portfolio rebalancing,
📰 and surprise macro headlines (Jackson Hole, China, Fed minutes).
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📊 Breadth Divergence + Seasonality = Risk?
Here’s what feels different — but also familiar.
✅ The Fed is mostly out of the way. With rate hikes likely done, equities should have breathing room.
✅ Mega-cap tech is holding the index up: $NVDA$, $MSFT$, and $META$ still dominate flows.
⚠️ But breadth is weak — small caps ($IWM$) and equal-weight S&P ($RSP$) are lagging.
🧊 And VIX is still below 14 — suggesting complacency.
Options markets show growing put activity into late August. Traders aren’t panicking — but many are quietly hedging via SPY puts and VIX calls.
That signals one thing:
> Traders aren’t sure when the pullback hits — but they’re starting to price one in.
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🛡️ Preparing for Pullback: My 3-Part Game Plan
I’m not calling for a crash. But I’m definitely not chasing new highs here either.
Here’s how I’m positioning 👇
🔹 Trimmed winners into late July — especially extended names like $TSLA$, $SMCI$, and $NVDA$
🔹 Raised cash (~15% of portfolio) to stay flexible for a 5–7% dip
🔹 Started hedging with:
Light SPY September puts
A small $SQQQ$ position (inverse QQQ)
Watching $VIXY$ as a trade if VIX spikes above 16
Also on my radar:
SPY support near 625
QQQ short-term support at 550, major support at 520
If either level breaks, I may scale into long positions in $SOXX$, $ARKK$, or $AAPL$ depending on breadth
🧠 “Risk is seasonal, but so is opportunity.” August isn’t for panic — it’s for prep.
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💬 Would You Buy the Dip If August Pulls Back?
So now I want to hear from the Tiger crowd:
📉 Will August repeat last year’s 5% fade?
📈 Or is the strength in mega-cap tech enough to keep the rally alive?
💭 What’s your plan if QQQ tags 540 or SPY tests 615?
Are you rotating, hedging, or sitting on gains?
👇 Drop your trade setup or your top “buy the dip” stock. Let’s build a better August playbook — together.
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> Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. For informational and educational purposes only.
@TigerWire @TigerEvents @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_comments @TigerStars
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