I recently added a new position with 3X potential to my portfolio ✈️
The stock down ~80% from ATH and is trading below 2015 IPO price, at the same time revenue 4X
Let me show you in this thread why Wizz could be a big opportunity🧵
1) For those unfamiliar with Wizz Air: It’s a Hungarian fast-growing ultra-low-cost airline and the market leader in Central and Eastern Europe, a region undergoing strong economic expansion.
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2) After a successful IPO and six years of strong growth, Wizz Air’s stock began a relentless decline starting in 2021, losing ~80% of its value. As a satisfied customer of the airline, this sharp drop caught my attention.
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3) Here’s the core of my thesis, in just a few words: If Wizz Air manages to restore its profit margin to around 10%, it could generate roughly €500 million in annual earnings. With today’s market cap of just €1.4 billion, that implies a P/E ratio of only 2.8x
4) And if, as expected, the company more than doubles its revenue by 2030, that multiple could drop to a ridiculously low 1x. This line of reasoning certainly has its limitations, but I believe the core idea is sound.
5) A CASCADE OF PROBLEMS One of the first major setbacks Wizz Air faced in recent years was the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Back in 2019, Wizz held about a 10% market share in Ukraine. A potential resolution of the war could act as a significant catalyst.
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6) It would reopen the door for Wizz to capture a much larger share of the market, given the weakened state of former local players. According to management, Wizz is prepared to launch up to 60 routes within one year of reopening, and up to 150 routes within three years.
7) A second, and even more serious issue currently affecting Wizz Air involves its engines, supplied by Pratt & Whitney. Around 20% of the fleet is currently grounded due to engine recalls caused by manufacturing defects. This has led to a significant slowdown in recent growth.
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8) What’s remarkable, however, is that despite this severe disruption, the company has managed to remain profitable. That’s a strong indicator of the underlying resilience and profitability of the business model.
9) In mid-July 2025, Wizz Air announced the suspension of operations at its Abu Dhabi subsidiary after several years of losses. The decision came in response to deteriorating operating conditions, driven by a mix of rising geopolitical tensions and engine performance issues.
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10) This move is expected to improve the company’s bottom line as early as the coming quarters. However, it also requires a reallocation of aircraft, which Wizz will now redirect to strengthen its presence on CEE routes, where the company is once again focusing its efforts.
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11) As a result, Wizz Air’s growth over the next three years will be slower than previously anticipated. Due to this strategic shift, annual growth is now expected to come in at around 10–12%, down from earlier projections.
12) It’s important to highlight that by then, Wizz Air’s fleet will consist almost entirely of A321neo aircraft, already the most efficient narrow-body jet in operation today. This level of standardization should unlock significant operational synergies.
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13) WIZZ AIR’S WINNING MODEL Wizz Air’s low-cost model and strategic execution have enabled the company to secure a leadership position in the CEE market. Between 2014 and 2024, Wizz reached a 50% market share in countries like Albania, Georgia, Romania and Hungary.
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14) Another key strength of Wizz Air is its high share of ancillary revenues, which accounted for 45% of total revenue in 2024, well above Ryanair (32%) and EasyJet (27%). This contributes to greater revenue stability and supports the company’s margins.
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15) As a relatively young company in the airline industry, Wizz Air brings a fresh and innovative approach to the sector. Its leadership, anchored by a motivated CEO and co-founder, has shown a strong focus on building strategic partnerships and embracing new technologies.
16) Having a founder still at the helm is a unique advantage, if only because it’s his company, and he still owns around 1.5% of it. What stood out to me is his personality and long-term vision: he prioritizes the company’s future over short-term quarterly results.
17) Here’s how he started the last Q2 call: "Alright. Good morning, so I would say that last time we gave you a hell of a story with a lot of details, and you crushed us. This time, we're gonna give you no story with no details. So I hope you understand what you have to do"
18) WIZZ AIR HAS 3-5X PRICE POTENTIAL As of today, Wizz Air has a net debt of €4.7 billion, which accounts for roughly 80% of its €6.1 billion enterprise value, given that the company’s market capitalization stands at just €1.4 billion.
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19) Based on a few forward-looking assumptions for 2030, here’s how I see the potential for Wizz Air: The company could reach €10+ billion in revenue by 2030, driven by fleet expansion and the resolution of current engine-related issues.
20) Net profit margins could realistically return to 8-10% by 2030, not far but still below their historical levels and industry leaders. Depending on the scenario, the valuation multiple (P/E) could range from a conservative 5x to a more optimistic 8x, in line with peers.
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21) Under these assumptions, equity valuation could fall between €4.5 billion and €7.2 billion, representing a potential 3x to 5x upside from today’s depressed market cap.
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22) These impressive potential returns are largely enabled by Wizz Air’s high financial leverage, currently around 4x net debt/EBITDA. In situations like this, where the market cap is heavily depressed, leverage plays a key role in amplifying equity upside as earnings recover.
23) I see the realization of this thesis, even partially, as more likely than a collapse of Wizz, which has now become a well-established player in the industry. This makes the high-risk/high-reward equation clearly skewed in favor of the reward.
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