$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ 🧠🔥⚔️ Nvidia Is Eating AMD’s Lunch: And the AI Buffet Isn’t Slowing ⚔️🔥🧠

I’m extremely confident we’re watching a structural bifurcation unfold. AMD’s data center growth is collapsing, credibility is eroding, and the charts have snapped. Meanwhile, Nvidia just printed $30.77B in data center revenue, gained another $72B in free cash flow, and has pulled within $1T of the entire EuroStoxx 50.

Flash Verdict: Bullish $NVDA. Tactical Pause $AMD unless $168 is reclaimed.

I’m tactically cautious on AMD until it proves its Q2 decline is a one-off and not the beginning of a demand downgrade cycle. I’m betting $NVDA hits $5T before AMD sees another $3.85B quarter in data center revenue; prove me wrong.

📊 Chart Breakdown

📉 AMD’s 4H chart: price collapsed 7.5% to $161.23 after rejecting the upper Bollinger band. RSI: 43.68. MACD: bearish crossover confirmed (DIF: -2.42, DEA: -0.81). The breakdown invalidated the $168 support zone and pierced the 21/55 EMAs with volume confirmation. Next major Fib zone support sits at $154.80. Below that, the liquidity shelf at $142.25 opens up.

📈 Nvidia’s 4H chart is still coiling bullishly. RSI: 58.77, MACD: DIF 2.41, DEA 1.06. Price is consolidating within a bullish Keltner compression zone near $176.80. Reclaims of $179.50 could trigger a squeeze toward $188. Major Bollinger support is at $172.60 with secondary support at $168.90.

💰 Earnings Snapshot

AMD’s Q2-25 net income of $872M was an illusion. Samantha LaDuc reveals it was padded by:

• $834M in one-time tax reserve release

• $104M from discontinued ops

• Strip them, and AMD booked a pre-tax loss

Their “free cash flow” of $3B was also artificially inflated:

• $330M came from factoring receivables

• $836M from delayed vendor payments

In contrast, Nvidia’s Q2 FY25 earnings:

• Data Center Revenue: $30.77B

• Gaming: $3.28B

• Total FCF: $72B

• Operating Margin: 58%

• Gross Margin: 70%

• Net income growth: 422% YoY

Nvidia is executing, AMD is explaining.

📈 Segment Revenue Trajectory

📊 AMD’s Data Center Revenue: • Sep24: $3.549B

• Dec24 peak: $3.859B

• Mar25: down to $3.674B

• Jun25: further down to $3.240B

That’s two consecutive QoQ declines. YoY growth has collapsed from 122% (Q3-24) to just 14.5% in Q2-25. It’s not a pullback; it’s a trend reversal.

📊 Nvidia’s Revenue Chart (Q2 FY25):

• Data Center: $30.77B

• Gaming: $3.28B

• Total: $33.9B

This was up from $26.27B the prior quarter and $22.56B before that. Nvidia’s Data Center has compounded over +1020% in 2.5 years. AMD grew +91% total return in 5 years.

🏦 ETF & Institutional Context

$NVDA is now ~20% of SMH and 6.8% of QQQ. $AMD sits at 3.6% and 1.2% respectively. BlackRock and Vanguard both increased $NVDA holdings last quarter; hedge funds like Coatue and Tiger Global rotated into NVDA but trimmed AMD.

EuroStoxx vs Nvidia (📈 Bloomberg chart): $NVDA’s market cap hit $4.313T, closing in on the entire EuroStoxx 50 index at $5.49T. That’s not just market cap; it’s geopolitical tech dominance.

📉 Valuation & Margin Reality Check

Nvidia:

• Forward P/E: 36x

• 5Y Total Return: +1,474%

• TTM Revenue: $149B

• Gross Margin: 70%

• Operating Margin: 58%

• 5Y ROIC: 75%

AMD:

• Forward P/E: 42x (more expensive!)

• 5Y Total Return: +91%

• TTM Revenue: $28B

• Gross Margin: 54%

• Operating Margin: 10%

• 5Y ROIC: 20%

Nvidia is cheaper on forward valuation while printing 6x the revenue and 7x the cash flow.

📣 Analyst Sentiment & PTs

• Morgan Stanley: Overweight NVDA, PT $1500 (implied $6T)

• BofA: NVDA PT $1350, citing unmatched acceleration in H100/H200 demand and sovereign cloud orders

• Susquehanna: Downgraded AMD post-Q2 citing “AI deceleration risk” and “inventory overhang”

🧠 Rule of 40 Frontier

Nvidia: 122

AMD: Off the chart

Palantir: 94

TSMC: 88

Meta: 76

AVGO: 72

MSFT: 67

AAPL: 43

AMZN: 29

TSLA: -5

Nvidia is in a class of its own, AMD is sliding off the grid.

🧨 My Trade Plan

NVDA: I’m long with conviction above $172.60. Watching for a break above $179.50 with volume to re-enter swing. If it clears $188, the $200 psychological and $210 Fib extension come fast.

AMD: Tactical pause. Unless $168 is reclaimed, I’m expecting rotation out of semis with weak internals. Breakdown confirmation below $154.80 opens up $142.25, which aligns with the 55 EMA monthly. That’s where I might nibble long.

🧠 Final Thesis: AMD Isn’t Even in the Same Weight Class

Nvidia isn’t winning; it’s dominating every vector: revenue growth, margins, capital efficiency, TAM expansion, geopolitics, and ETF flows. AMD has to fight for scraps at hyperscalers while NVDA is dictating pricing at every tier of the AI stack.

This isn’t just divergence; it’s detachment.

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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