$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ 📈💥🇺🇸 AMD spikes on tariffs, ARK buys, and AI dreams: Is Nvidia’s cousin about to dominate? 🇺🇸💥📈

I’m watching Advanced Micro Devices ($AMD) surge into a perfect volatility storm: politics, positioning, and potential all colliding in real time. The stock just bounced 5% to $171.31, reclaiming momentum after a panic low in the $150s, driven by $24M in single-leg call premiums against just $2M in puts. That’s a 12:1 bullish skew on option flow. This isn’t retail noise, it’s high-conviction, short-dated aggression.

Cathie Wood agrees. ARK Invest just snapped up 234,992 shares across ARKK, ARKQ, and ARKW on 06Aug25, confirming institutional accumulation into the drawdown. That’s not something you fade lightly, especially when paired with macro catalysts as explosive as the 100% semiconductor tariff exemption announced by Trump for U.S.-based chipmakers like AMD.

I’m seeing AMD’s positioning tighten across multiple timeframes. On the 4H chart, the price tagged the lower Keltner and Bollinger zones near $162 before rebounding with authority. The current candle is reclaiming mid-band territory, pushing toward the pink Bollinger extension at $175. The setup resembles a textbook volatility flush and reversal, one that happens before continuation, not collapse.

The net drift chart proves this wasn’t just a dead-cat bounce. Call premium inflow exceeded $24.7M by 10:50 AM on 07Aug25, pushing the stock back to $172.09 on strong underlying demand. Put premiums fell into negative drift, closing at -$2.71M. Volume remained elevated but skewed bullishly with consistent size pressure into every micro pullback.

The weekly chart adds longer-term context: AMD is up over 138% off the lows and just completed a textbook backtest of prior resistance. Support now aligns with both the 100-week MA and the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement at $130.91, a structurally healthy consolidation zone. The rejection from the $177–$180 supply band was clean but didn’t violate the trend. This is a breather, not a breakdown.

I am strategically focused on AMD’s AI roadmap. While Wall Street punished the Q2 call for lack of clarity on MI350 ramp timelines, it’s clear from CEO Lisa Su’s commentary that the real play is MI400 in 2026: a full-stack, rack-scale 72-GPU system designed to go toe-to-toe with Nvidia’s GB200 NVL72. Yes, AMD is behind in timing, but the market already knows that. The question is whether they can deliver rack-scale servers at scale next year. If they do, AMD becomes more than just Nvidia’s cousin. It becomes its shadow.

Investors should not ignore Microsoft’s deepening collaboration with AMD, especially given the strategic implications of OpenAI’s CEO appearing at the recent Advancing AI event. Altman doesn’t show up for hype, he shows up for roadmap alignment.

Still, not all is rosy. AMD’s data center growth slowed to 14% YoY from 57% in Q1, while most of Q2’s beat came from gaming units. That divergence matters. At 32x forward earnings vs Nvidia’s 36x, valuation may look fair, but Nvidia is growing revenue at 69% while AMD’s pace is 32%. That’s a steep delta when pricing in future dominance.

Technically, AMD is sandwiched between strong volume zones, with near-term resistance at $177.30 and medium-term support at $163.12, just above the critical $130.91 Fib. The 4H bounce suggests upside bias, but confirmation comes only above $175. MACD crossovers are forming, RSI is recovering, and momentum is building, but we’re not there yet.

This is a high-volatility, conviction-versus-caution battleground. If AMD clears $180, we could see a fast move toward its former ATH zone near $227.30. But if MI400 hits a production snag like Nvidia’s early GB200 issues, all bets are off.

So here’s the million-dollar question:

Will AMD’s rack-scale MI400 rollout in 2026 be the inflection point that flips the script on Nvidia, or are we already too late to the AI chip party?

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