$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ 🔥💾⚙️ Nvidia vs AMD: Tariff Exemptions, ATH Breakout, and the $4.4T Chip Colossus ⚙️💾🔥

🎯 Executive Summary

I’m extremely confident that Nvidia’s current surge isn’t just a reaction to macro headlines; it’s the ignition of a longer-term AI-capex supercycle that’s being reshaped in real time by tariff policy, sovereign robotics infrastructure, and trillion-dollar institutional flows. On 07Aug25, NVDA surged to $183.88 after President Trump confirmed Nvidia and Apple would be exempt from the new 100% semiconductor tariffs. Nvidia closed up 2.20%, adding over $3.53 per share and contributing to the Dow’s 204-point rally. AMD jumped more than 6% on the same news.

I’m watching Nvidia not only as a semiconductor leader, but as the backbone of the Physical AI revolution: humanoid robots, autonomous driving, and real-world dexterity systems. When robots sew, drive, or deliver groceries, they’ll be running on Nvidia silicon.

💰 Financial Performance Breakdown

Nvidia:

• Market Cap: $4.4T

• TTM Revenue: $149B

• 3Y Revenue Growth: +71%

• Gross Margin: 70%

• Operating Margin: 58%

• TTM Free Cash Flow: $72B

• Cash: $54B

• 5Y Total Return: +1,474%

• Forward P/E: 36x

AMD:

• Market Cap: $283B

• TTM Revenue: $28B

• Gross Margin: 54%

• Operating Margin: 10%

• TTM FCF: $3B

• 3Y Revenue Growth: +14%

• Cash: $7B

• Forward P/E: 42x

• 5Y Total Return: +91%

🛠️ Strategic Headwinds & Execution Risk

The 100% semiconductor tariff bombshell could’ve nuked global supply chains; however, Trump’s carve-out for Nvidia and Apple changes the game. These exemptions reward U.S.-based manufacturing pledges and create a split-tier ecosystem: exempted giants and scrambling second-tier players. The risk now shifts to smaller chipmakers unable to secure similar commitments by the August 12 deadline. Still, Nvidia’s scale, DoD partnerships, and Blackwell rollout reduce policy fragility.

🧠 Analyst & Institutional Sentiment

• Goldman Sachs: Maintains Buy, raises PT to $200 from $185

“Blackwell ramp, China contribution, and gross margins are key levers. Expect a beat-and-raise quarter.”

• Mutual Fund Flows: $4.83B inflow into NVDA, topping even MSFT and PLTR

• ETFs: Top holdings in $SMH, $QQQ, $VOO

• Options Flow: Over $2.3M sold-to-open in 09/19 $164P puts; strong bullish undertone

• Institutional bias remains dominant; no signs of rotation out of mega-cap AI

📉📈 Technical Setup

• NVDA reclaimed $173.30 W harmonic support and cleared blue-top resistance at $182.01–183.37

• $183.75 confirms breakout

• 4H Keltner/Bollinger bands show compression resolved into bullish trend continuation

• RSI: 91.44 (overbought but justified)

• MACD (12,26,9): DIF 13.91 > DEA 10.05, signaling a sustained momentum build

• Weekly chart confirms multi-cycle base, squeezing just under ATH

• Watch for $179.00 retest (prior volume shelf) and $200 psychological magnet

• Price level inflection zones: $175.68 (support), $183.37 (breakout zone), $200 (stretch)

🌍 Macro & Peer Context

• Trump’s 100% semiconductor tariff excludes NVDA and AAPL due to domestic investment pledges

• AMD rebounded sharply, but lacks NVDA’s geopolitical insulation

• Semiconductor bill (CHIPS Act): $52.7B subsidy to bring leading-edge manufacturing to U.S.

• Robotics revolution (InvestorPlace): Humanoid systems now driving, sewing, and scaling into real-world deployment

• AI-powered robotics set to become a multi-trillion-dollar megatrend, per Luke Lango

• Peer inflows: AAR Corp. ($8.06B), MSFT ($3.69B), PLTR ($1.71B), Broadcom ($1.44B); AI leaders are the institutional magnet

📊 Valuation & Capital Health

• NVDA: Forward P/E 36x; cheap relative to 5Y CAGR and 70% gross margin

• AMD: Forward P/E 42x; stretched given slower revenue acceleration

• Nvidia’s $72B FCF dwarfs all peers; cash balance of $54B offers strategic optionality

• 5Y ROIC: NVDA 75%, AMD 20%

• Valuation supported by dominance in compute, supply-chain insulation, and Blackwell cycle leverage

⚖️ Verdict & Trade Plan

I’m long-biased Nvidia on structural strength, technical confirmation, and political insulation.

• Swing Entry: $179.00–181.00 (retest zone)

• Stop-loss: $174.50

• Base Target: $200.00 (Goldman’s PT)

• Stretch Target: $214.30 (Fib extension + options open interest apex)

• Watch for breakout confirmation on volume > 2.5M and close above $183.37

• Next Catalyst: 27Aug25 earnings

🏁 Conclusion

I’m not chasing hype, I’m tracking an economic rearchitecting. Nvidia isn’t just an AI chipmaker; it’s the sovereign infrastructure layer for the robotics-driven economy. The exemptions, flows, and breakouts tell us where the future is being priced. This isn’t just a chip rally; it’s a structural rerating in motion.

📌 Key Takeaways

• Trump: $NVDA exempt from 100% tariffs due to U.S. investments

• NVDA hit $183.88 ATH; up 2.20% on 07Aug25

• RSI: 91.44, MACD bull trend intact (DIF 13.91 > DEA 10.05)

• Goldman PT: Raised to $200 on margin and China optimism

• Institutional inflows: $4.83B from mutual funds in July

• NVDA vs AMD: 5Y Return +1,474% vs +91%; Free Cash Flow $72B vs $3B

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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