$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ $CME Bitcoin - main 2508(BTCmain)$ $CME Ether - main 2508(ETHmain)$ 🔥📐🔓 Bitcoin Just Backtested $117K. Coinbase Just Backtested a Gann Arc Breakout. The Trade is Now. 🔓📐🔥

🧨 Flash Thesis

I’m positioning now. Coinbase ($COIN) has back-tested its Gann arc breakout precisely as Bitcoin retests $117K and Ethereum surges to $3,825.66. These aren’t random bounces. This is a synchronized setup across the crypto-financial stack, spanning monetary policy, sovereign flows, and angular momentum.

I’m treating $COIN not as a crypto stock, but as a structural financial layer; leveraged to the rails of this asset class and trading inside an institutional vacuum. Bitcoin has absorbed 62% of a $3.81T crypto market. $COIN is the only publicly listed company that monetizes that dominance across custody, execution, and regulation.

📊 Macro Structure: BTC and ETH Are Reasserting

• Bitcoin now commands a $2.36T market cap, representing 62% of total crypto capitalization.

• Ethereum sits at $435B, up nearly 4% on the session, regaining mid-cycle leadership.

• Visual Capitalist data confirms: BTC now exceeds the combined cap of the next ten largest tokens.

Bitcoin isn’t competing anymore; it’s consolidating power. Ethereum is catching bid as beta. The rest are rotating capital back toward Layer 1 gravity.

📈 BTC and ETH 4H Chart Signals

BTC/USD (BITSTAMP)

• Keltner mid-band reclaim confirms breakout at $114K

• Current price: $116,294

• Breakout candle through upper Bollinger midline

• Trend momentum intact with rising volume through resistance

• No divergence present; trend clean

ETH/USD (COINBASE)

• Sharp recovery from $3,440 zone

• Current price: $3,825.66

• Breakout candle shows clean expansion through both Keltner and Bollinger upper bounds

• Bullish MACD slope with EMA stack compression below

This is structural continuation, not short-covering.

📐 Gann Square + Arc: The Technical Core

• $COIN broke above long-term weekly Gann arc resistance in Q2

• Recent pullback retraced precisely into the arc and Gann intersection zone ($293–$310)

• This is a textbook angular back-test pattern: breakout, contact, pivot

• Arc curvature projects a fast-move window into $380.75 by late August, with $438.62 symmetry extension by mid-September

• Gann arcs and squared diagonals remain unviolated, confirming structure is intact

The market is not guessing; this is mathematically aligned reaccumulation.

📉 Multi-Indicator Weekly Confirmation

• Current price: $310.47

• Bollinger mid-band holding above $293

• Weekly Keltner compression still angled upward

• EMA structure (13 > 21 > 55) remains intact, reflecting controlled consolidation

• Volume is contracting post-rally, typical of a volatility reset phase

No signals of breakdown. This is a quiet coil on top of a completed breakout.

📌 Strategic Drivers of Coinbase Value

• ETF flows: $IBIT, $FBTC, and $ARKB. Coinbase is the core custodian. Spot ETF AUM exceeds $60B

• S&P 500 inclusion: Triggers systematic passive inflow regardless of sentiment

• 401(k) reform: Trump’s executive order opens $12.5T in defined-contribution capital to crypto exposure

• Brazil’s sovereign BTC allocation debate (20Aug25): If approved, up to $17B in reserves could flow into BTC. Coinbase benefits through both custodial and transactional infrastructure

• JPMorgan–Coinbase wallet rails: Launching Fall 2025, delivering legacy-to-crypto conversion at scale

Coinbase isn’t riding sentiment; it’s absorbing regulatory tailwinds and capital infrastructure buildouts in real time.

📊 Price Map and Risk Parameters

• Support: $293–$310 (arc and squared diagonal intersection)

• Base target: $353 (prior resistance and volume node)

• Acceleration point: $380.75 (Delta breakout test)

• Extension zone: $438.62 (symmetric arc projection)

• High cycle node: $488 (Gann curve cluster for Q3 close)

• Structural risk limit: Weekly close below $293 invalidates breakout

These are not predictions. They’re probability-weighted frameworks.

🧠 Sovereign + Institutional Accumulation Narrative

• Bitcoin’s realized price structure now stacks cleanly: $104K (6m), $88K (2y), $51K (all-time). PlanB confirms full bull cycle intact.

• Coinbase is the primary monetization node for BTC’s transition from asset to policy vehicle.

• Brazil’s potential 5% BTC reserve allocation would mark the first meaningful sovereign shift in global reserve strategy since Bretton Woods broke.

Coinbase sits at the center of that transition.

📍 Executional Clarity

• Volume compression is resolving

• Arc breakout has held

• BTC dominance is rising

• Ethereum beta is following

• Equity hasn’t repriced yet

This is a rare alignment between angular technicals, narrative conviction, and structural macro events. The back-test has done its job. The trade is ready.

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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