Do I hold chip stocks?

NVDA since 2021 for the 'small' win. 

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Are semiconductors a 10- or 20-year investment theme?

Yes, semiconductors are widely regarded as a long-term secular growth theme, potentially spanning 10–20 years or more. Here’s why:

🔷 1. Foundational to the Digital Economy

Semiconductors power everything—from smartphones, laptops, and cars to data centres and artificial intelligence (AI). As digitalisation expands, so does chip demand.

🔷 2. AI & HPC (High-Performance Computing)

The explosive growth of AI models (like GPTs) and large-scale computing infrastructures is massively driving chip demand, especially GPUs and custom silicon (e.g., NVIDIA, AMD, Broadcom, TSMC).

🔷 3. Reshoring & Geopolitics

Governments (U.S., EU, Japan, China) are pouring billions into local semiconductor manufacturing. This provides structural support for the sector, regardless of short-term volatility.

🔷 4. Auto & IoT Integration

The shift toward electric vehicles (EVs), autonomous driving, and smart devices brings chips to the forefront of non-traditional sectors. Some vehicles today contain thousands of chips.

🔷 5. Supply Chain Control as National Security

Semiconductors are increasingly seen as strategic assets, akin to oil in the 20th century. This elevates long-term state-backed funding and attention.

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Investment Horizon Perspective:

Timeframe Focus Notes

1–2 years Cyclical swings (inventory corrections, tariffs, rate sensitivity) Volatile; good for tactical trading

5–10 years AI, datacenters, EV/IoT expansion Structural growth opportunities

10–20 years Ubiquitous chip integration across society “Picks and shovels” of the future economy

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If you're considering long-term exposure, you may wish to explore both individual names (e.g., NVDA, AMD, AVGO, TSM) and broad ETFs like:

SOXX (iShares Semiconductor ETF)

SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF)