$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ 🚨📈🔥 Palantir Overtakes Costco in Market Cap as AI Labor Shock Unfolds – This Isn’t Divergence; It’s Detachment

Palantir has just closed the session at $187.49, up 2.61%, achieving a market cap greater than Costco for the first time. I’m extremely confident this isn’t just a chart breakout; it’s a structural shift in how capital is flowing toward AI haves. I’m tactically cautious near term given the extreme momentum, but I see the macro AI-labor dynamic setting the stage for a multi-year market reckoning in enterprise software dominance.

Chart Breakdown

On the 4H chart, price is in a parabolic uptrend, pushing well beyond the upper Keltner and Bollinger bands. EMAs (13, 21, 55) are fanned bullish with no near-term cross threats. RSI on the weekly sits at 86.85, while the monthly RSI has reached an unprecedented 96: on track for 14 green months out of the last 15. MACD (12, 26, 9) is strongly positive at DIF 21.41 vs DEA 18.11, confirming upside momentum. Elliott Wave counts suggest the current leg (wave 5) is targeting $191.83 after clearing the 0.618 Fib retrace level at $143.91. Support zones are thin, with psychological demand around $172 and $160 given the vertical structure. This is pure price discovery mode with volatility compression only likely on a liquidity flush.

Earnings Snapshot

Q2 revenue hit $1.004B (+48% YoY) against $939.71M expected. EPS came in at $0.16 vs $0.14 expected, marking eight consecutive GAAP-profitable quarters. U.S. Commercial revenue surged 93% YoY, customer count grew 43%, and Government revenues rose 53% YoY. Management raised full-year revenue guidance to $4.14B–$4.15B and lifted operating income targets by 12%. This is the first $1B revenue quarter in company history, with margin expansion on top of an already high base.

Segment Revenues

Government segment still contributes the majority but is seeing decelerating percentage growth relative to the commercial side. U.S. Commercial has become the growth engine, while International Commercial remains muted at -3% YoY. Record ACV ($0.7B) and TCV ($2.3B, +140% YoY) have pushed remaining deal value to +65% YoY. This backlog growth is critical for sustained revenue visibility, locking in long-term AI platform adoption.

Flow & Institutional Moves

Political positioning adds a unique angle: Marjorie Taylor Greene purchased PLTR on April 8, 2025, while sitting on the House Committee on Homeland Security. Since her buy, PLTR is up 142.37% vs SPY’s +27.71%. ETF exposure is present in AI-heavy funds like QQQ and XLK, meaning passive inflows continue to feed demand. Social sentiment as of 09Aug25 is near peak cycle highs, with retail chatter spiking post-earnings and institutions adding on momentum signals.

Valuation Check

By traditional metrics, PLTR is historically expensive: P/E GAAP (TTM) 603.94 vs sector median 27.29 (+2,112.86%), EV/Sales (TTM) 122.15 vs 3.25 (+3,657.32%), and EV/EBITDA (TTM) 703.03 vs 17.20 (+3,986.51%). PEG GAAP stands at 7.74 vs 0.90. Price/Sales is at 122.72 vs sector 3.19. This is valuation detachment, sustained only by hypergrowth conviction and AI-sector capital rotation.

Analyst PTs & Sentiment

Wedbush (Dan Ives) raised PT to $200, calling the commercial AI expansion “off the charts” with “hyper growth demand.” Piper Sandler is at $182, BoA at $180 with a Buy, Deutsche Bank at $160 Hold, highlighting U.S. Commercial growth and backlog acceleration. Benzinga’s quantitative ranks place Momentum at 99.15, Growth at 92.71, Value at 2.47. Consensus notes PLTR’s “category of one” status in enterprise AI.

My Trade Plan

Near term, I’m eyeing a potential exhaustion wick into the $191.83 Elliott Wave 5 target. Any liquidity flush to $172 or $160 would be my high-conviction reloading zone. Position sizing will remain disciplined given the parabolic extension, but the secular AI tailwind justifies a core hold. I’m betting the AI-labor recession narrative accelerates adoption of Palantir’s AIP platform, driving sustained double-digit revenue growth and margin expansion into 2026.

Bold Prediction or Challenge

If PLTR maintains current trajectory, it could hit $200 before year-end, outpacing consensus PTs and forcing a credibility reset among value-focused bears. Prove me wrong, but with RSI extremes, a market reckoning in AI adoption, and Karp’s stated plan to 10× revenue while shrinking headcount, this is the kind of detachment that can extend far longer than skeptics can stay solvent.

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