Lanceljx
08-12

Market Momentum & Technical Outlook


Tesla’s stock has gained for five consecutive trading days, buoyed by:


A surge in Model Y order demand, with wait times extending to 4–6 weeks, up from 1–3 earlier this summer, driven by the looming $7,500 federal EV tax credit expiration at the end of September 2025. 


Positive sentiment around its autonomous-driving and AI ambitions, including the limited robotaxi rollout in Austin. 


Technical charts indicating that a sustained daily close above $338 would signal a bullish breakout, with the next target around $368, according to strategists at Fundstrat. 




---


What Lies Ahead: Is the Rally Nearing Its End?


Short-Term Strength Likely


The demand spike is clearly being fueled by buyers rushing to take delivery before September 30, the deadline for qualifying for the federal tax credit. 


As long as this “tax-credit-rush” dynamic persists, Tesla shares could hold their upward momentum.



Medium-Term Risks After the Tax Credit Ends


Once the tax credit disappears in Q4, demand could drop sharply—analysts forecast volatility and a potential slowdown in EV purchases. 


CEO Elon Musk has warned of "rough quarters" ahead due to weaker demand and dwindling regulatory incentives. 


Sales metrics remain under pressure, with U.S. EV sales down 6%, Tesla’s U.S. deliveries down nearly 13%, and global volume falling in both Q1 and Q2 2025. Q3 is projected to improve but still fall short of Q3 2024 volumes. 




---


Can Tesla Break $350?


Yes, it’s possible, if Tesla maintains its current momentum and successfully closes above the bullish breakout level of $338. Technical models project a move toward $368. 


Should a broader market correction occur—or if early signs emerge that buyers are pulling back before tax-credit deadline—Tesla’s rally could stall before reaching $350.




---


Summary: Your Questions Answered


Question Outlook


Is this rally nearing its end? Not just yet—it's likely to continue through the tax-credit deadline, but downside risk increases sharply afterward.

Can Tesla break $350? Yes, a sustained close above $338 could pave the way to $350–$368, but that hinges on continued bullish sentiment and delivery rush.




---


In conclusion, the rally is being powered by a short-term, deadline-driven surge. If the stock breaks $338 and market conditions hold, a move past $350 is within reach. However, investors should be cautious about sustainability post-tax credit expiration.




1 Trln Pay Package Approved! Tesla Sell the News: Hold for Long Term?
On November 6, more than 75% of shareholders voted in favor of Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s new compensation package. Under the plan, if Musk meets a series of milestones over the next ten years, he will gradually receive about 423.7 million restricted stock units (RSUs) — up to USD 1 trillion. Can Musk realistically hit these ambitious milestones in the next decade? Will this massive pay package truly align Tesla’s growth with shareholder interests After the approval, is Tesla a “sell the news” trade — or a long-term conviction hold?
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

We need your insight to fill this gap
Leave a comment