What’s Happened?
Agreement Details: Nvidia and AMD have struck a rare deal with the U.S. government to pay 15% of their revenue from AI chip sales in China—specifically for Nvidia’s H20 and AMD’s MI308 models—in exchange for export licenses. This marks a sharp reversal of April’s export ban.
Context: President Trump initially requested a 20% revenue share, but after negotiations settled at 15%. These chips are designed to comply with export-control restrictions.
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Analyst Perspectives
Short-Term Benefits:
Access to a massive market: Resuming sales to China—rather than losing revenue entirely—is viewed as a net positive. Bernstein analysts note that even after the revenue cut, 85% retention beats a total ban.
Boarding lost ground: Nvidia previously wrote down billions in lost sales. Regaining traction, even with concessions, may offset those losses.
Underlying Risks:
Profit margin concern: The revenue-sharing could pressure gross margins, depending on whether the cost is treated as a direct deduction or an expense—potentially reducing margins by 5–15 percentage points.
Unsettling precedent: Analysts like those at Bernstein warn of a “dangerous pay-to-play” model that shifts policymaking into corporate negotiations, raising broader implications for U.S. trade policy.
Long-term strategic risk: Chinese firms are rapidly advancing, and the deal may undercut broader U.S. strategic goals in AI and semiconductors.
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Verdict: Are Their Problems Solved?
Not entirely.
While this agreement grants immediate market access and helps mitigate revenue loss, it doesn't resolve deeper profitability, policy, or geopolitical challenges. The sustainability of this outcome remains uncertain.
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Can They Unlock More Upside Potential?
Possibly—but it’s conditional:
If demand in China remains strong, and if both companies can pass the cost to customers, they may partially preserve their margins.
Furthermore, if export paths open for more advanced chips—such as compliant versions of Blackwell—additional upside may follow.
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