$Robinhood(HOOD)$ $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ $CME Ether - main 2508(ETHmain)$ $CME Bitcoin - main 2508(BTCmain)$ I believe the real winner of this cycle isn’t just Bitcoin or Ethereum, it’s Robinhood. I’m convinced we’re watching a structural migration of retail flows. In the last 12 months, the returns tell the story:
$HOOD +467%
$BTC +97.3%
$ETH +63%
$COIN +56.9%
I’m looking at Robinhood’s July ‘25 metrics and they’re staggering. Equity trading volumes hit $209.1B, up 100% year-over-year. For perspective, Coinbase processed $230B in retail + institutional volume over an entire quarter (Q2 ‘25). Robinhood cleared nearly that in a single month. Crypto volumes on the app reached $16.8B (+217% YoY) and the margin book ballooned to $11.4B (+111% YoY). Options contracts traded climbed to 195.8M (+22% YoY). These aren’t anomalies; they’re structural tailwinds.
The market knows it. Ark Invest and Cathie Wood just added 150,908 more shares of Robinhood, extending institutional conviction. Simultaneously, CFO Jason Warnick sold ~$11M worth of stock at $110.93; insiders taking profit while institutions accumulate. That tension is fueling the battleground setup.
And Robinhood isn’t slowing on product expansion. The announcement of football prediction markets in partnership with Kalshi shows they literally want every single thing on their platform: equities, options, crypto, DATs, meme stocks, and now event contracts. That’s ecosystem capture at scale.
Meanwhile, someone just dropped serious money into HOOD options. Two massive bullish bets on the 115C expiring 29Aug25 totaled over $2M in premium. That’s not retail chatter; that’s sophisticated flow preparing for a near-term catalyst. Across the tape, I’m seeing constant sweeps and blocks: 109C sweeps at $992K, multiple 112–115C blocks, and heavy positioning around near-dated strikes.
Technicals reinforce the setup. The daily chart shows HOOD still in a parabolic uptrend despite a sharp pullback. On the 4H, price is consolidating inside Keltner and Bollinger compression between $105–$110. Clearing that zone could unlock fresh upside, supported by strong EMA alignment and sustained momentum.
This isn’t just a platform story; it’s the structural evolution of where retail trades. For now, capital is favoring Robinhood and traditional brokerages over CEXs and on-chain venues, outside of BTC and ETH inflows. Over time, Coinbase may pivot deeper into equities, but right now Robinhood dominates retail rails with unmatched breadth.
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