Expectations for NVIDIA’s Q2 Earnings (Releasing August 27 after market close)

Demand & Supply Strength

Analysts anticipate NVIDIA will beat earnings estimates, driven by robust demand across AI, data center, and gaming segments.

KeyBanc cites the strength of the Blackwell platform (GB200/GB300) but notes production issues with GB200 NVL72 racks. Nonetheless, they expect “upbeat guidance” with a keen focus on AI platforms, China exposure, and export controls.

Analyst Sentiment & Price Targets

Morgan Stanley reaffirmed an Overweight rating and raised its target to $206, pointing to favorable supply-demand dynamics and competition.

Mizuho’s analyst raised the target to $205, citing a long-term compounded 14% annual growth in AI server demand.

Supply Chain & Advanced Packaging

ASE, a key advanced packaging partner, expects its packaging-and-testing revenue to surge from $600M in 2024 to $1.6B in 2025, largely driven by AI chip demand—including NVIDIA workloads.

Reports indicate NVIDIA has secured ~60% of CoWoS capacity, equating to roughly 595,000 wafers, with 515,000 from TSMC using CoWoS-L technology. This underscores firm control over advanced packaging supply.

CEO Jensen Huang confirmed the shift to CoWoS-L from CoWoS-S to accommodate Blackwell chips, highlighting increased packaging capacity.

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GB200/GB300 Ramp & Mass Production Outlook

GB200 Platform

GB200 NVL72 is in high demand, though there are liquid-cooling system reliability issues (notably quick-connect coolant leaks). Operators are responding with localized shutdowns and leak testing.

Despite the overlap with GB300, GB200 maintains strong demand.

GB300 “Blackwell Ultra” Servers

Large-scale shipments are expected to begin in September 2025, aided by design reuse from GB200 and modular structure to streamline production.

Suppliers like Foxconn, Quanta, Wistron, Wiwynn, and Inventec are actively ramping production capacity. Quanta started shipments of GB200 in Q2 2025 and is targeting GB300 shipments in September.

GB300's modular architecture—with separate GPU, CPU, and controller modules—enhances flexibility and simplifies assembly.

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Rubin (Vera Rubin Platform) Mass Production Progress

Rubin microarchitecture (successor to Blackwell) will use a 3 nm process with HBM4 memory. NVIDIA plans mass production of Rubin chips in late 2025, with availability in early 2026.

The Vera Rubin platform will launch in two phases:

1. Phase one replaces Grace CPUs with Vera CPUs and Blackwell GPUs with Rubin GPUs (using the current Oberon rack).

2. Phase two introduces an all-new Kyber rack with Rubin Ultra GPUs and Vera CPUs for enhanced compute density.

Analyst concerns about potential Rubin delays were publicly dismissed by NVIDIA, which affirmed that production remains on schedule for Q2 FY2026, with server volumes expected by late Q3 FY2026.

However, some market watchers remain cautious; a notable HFT-focused Reddit commentary summarized:

> “GB200 2Q mass shipment timing is optimistic. GB300 mass production may not ramp up until 1H26. Yet… Rubin production timing moved forward by 6 month to 2H25.”

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Summary Table

Area Outlook & Expectations

Q2 Earnings Expected to beat estimates, strong AI/data center/gaming performance; optimistic guidance.

Analyst Targets Morgan Stanley: $206; Mizuho: $205.

Packaging Supply Strong CoWoS-L allocation (~60%); ASE doubling revenue to $1.6B in packaging/testing.

GB200 Ramp Strong demand but liquid-cooling reliability issues.

GB300 Ramp Full-scale shipments from September 2025; streamlined modular production.

Rubin Rollout Mass production slated for late 2025; server availability in early to mid-2026.

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Final Insights Leading into August 27 Earnings

NVIDIA is poised to deliver another strong earnings performance, buoyed by sustained AI-driven demand, improved supply chain coordination, and scaling of next-gen platforms.

The GB200-to-GB300 handover appears managed effectively, with GB300 ramping in Q3 2025.

The Rubin platform looks on track for rollout, solidifying NVIDIA’s annual cadence in architectures.

Still, potential hurdles—such as cooling system reliability, regulatory headwinds (e.g. China/H20 concerns), and tight packaging logistics—should be monitored closely.