🚀🛡️📊 Palantir at the Crossroads: Overvalued, Strategic Sovereign Asset, or Insider Cashout? 📊🛡️🚀

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Lockheed Martin(LMT)$

🧭 Valuation Stretch or New Era

I’m watching Palantir trade at 110.9x sales. That’s beyond anything we saw in 2021’s euphoric run. At these levels, value investors call this madness; momentum traders call it confirmation. The truth is that such premiums almost always precede volatility, and timing becomes everything.

📉 Technical Inflection Point

I’m focused on $156.90 as the key bounce level. We saw a sharp rejection from $164.18 that pushed the stock back into this zone. On the monthly, Palantir sits at the 1.618 Fib extension ($157.62). If this candle closes above last month’s breakout, it confirms continuation to $185 and $225. A close below flips the script, and $142–$125 comes into play fast.

📊 Compression & Flow Signals

I’m seeing Keltner and Bollinger bands tightening after the August expansion. This tells me a new move is brewing. Options flow shows heavy call positioning into $165 but the flush brought in hedging pressure. Dealer gamma likely flips around $155–$157, meaning this area isn’t just technical, it’s flow driven.

🏛️ Trump’s Defense Stake Catalyst

The macro catalyst changes the narrative. Commerce Secretary Lutnick confirmed Trump is considering U.S. stakes in defense contractors: Lockheed, Boeing, and Palantir. That headline flipped Palantir from -1% to +2.4% intraday. If Washington formalizes ownership, Palantir isn’t just an AI software firm anymore—it becomes a strategic sovereign asset. That enhances revenue durability but also raises political risk.

💼 Insider Selling: Strategic or Signal?

I’m tracking CEO Alex Karp’s insider activity. He unloaded 409,072 shares worth $60M across $142.46–$157.56 and has sold nearly $1.9B since early 2024, with another $800M pre-planned for Sept 2025. Even after that, he still holds over 6.4M shares valued above $1B. While some call this a red flag, I see it as diversification rather than outright loss of conviction. Still, such volume of selling is a reminder that insiders are lightening up while the market pays extreme multiples.

🎯 My Takeaway

I’m seeing Palantir at a fork:

• A monthly close above $157 confirms a breakout to $185 and potentially $225.

• A failure at $156.90 opens the door to a liquidity flush into $142 or lower.

The narrative is asymmetric: sovereign stake discussions could override valuation logic, but technical rejection here could still punish late buyers.

These are not predictions. They’re probability-weighted frameworks.

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Palantir Secures £1.5B UK Deal: Up 134% YTD! Still Room to Run?

UK will significantly increase purchases of Palantir Technologies (PLTR) data analytics software, with the U.K. military committing over $1 billion over five years, extending an earlier deal, according to Bloomberg. Following the news, Palantir shares rose 5.1% to close at $176.97. Year-to-date, the stock is up about 134% in 2025, though it remains below its all-time high of $190 on August 12. 👉 With continued government adoption and long-term contracts, could Palantir sustain its strong 2025 rally, or is a consolidation phase likely?

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Comments

Queengirlypops
08-28
Queengirlypops
I loved how you tied the valuation stretch to momentum and then flipped it with that Trump sovereign stake angle. It feels like Palantir’s not even trading as just a software company anymore, it’s basically national security equity. The probability framework you ended on is exactly what people need, not hype, but a clear roadmap that makes sense for real positioning.
Tui Jude
08-28
Tui Jude
🛡️I like how you framed Karp’s sales as diversification not capitulation. Insider activity always spooks people, but pairing it with flow compression at $155–$157 makes the context clear. It’s similar to when $MSFT executives sold into strength yet the stock still ran on Azure momentum.
Hen Solo
08-28
Hen Solo
🛡️I like how you framed Karp’s sales as diversification not capitulation. Insider activity always spooks people, but pairing it with flow compression at $155–$157 makes the context clear. It’s similar to when $MSFT executives sold into strength yet the stock still ran on Azure momentum.
Cool Cat Winston
08-28
Cool Cat Winston
📊I’m struck by how you tied the $156.90 bounce zone to the monthly Fib. That alignment really matters when valuations are stretched like this. Reminds me of how $NVDA respected its log levels before ripping higher. The sovereign stake chatter adds an entirely new volatility layer.
Kiwi Tigress
08-28
Kiwi Tigress
I’m all in on how you broke this down. The way you explained the Fib confluence at $157 with gamma flip levels makes the setup super clear, and adding Karp’s insider sales just makes it more real. It feels like one of those points where momentum either kicks off the runway or stalls out hard, and I like how you kept the narrative tied to actual flows and political catalysts.