August wrapped with a whisper—-To The Moon - Tiger Brokers Online Investing Community - To The Moon

August wrapped with a whisper—not a bang. Hedge funds and large speculators are shorting the VIX at levels not seen since 2022, with net short positions hitting 92,786 contracts. That’s a massive bet on calm continuing. But history warns: when everyone’s on one side of the boat, it only takes a ripple to flip it. 🌊⚠️
🧠 What Is the September Effect?
September has a reputation for being the market’s moodiest month.
📉 Historically the worst-performing month for the S&P 500
🏦 Mutual funds rebalance, locking in gains or harvesting tax losses
🏖️ Traders return from summer break, bringing volume—and volatility
🧨 Macro catalysts (Fed, jobs, geopolitics) tend to cluster here
This year, the setup feels especially fragile.
VIX remains below 15, 24% below its yearly average
Fed rate cut expectations are rising
Trump drama is swirling again—from tariff spikes to geopolitical tension
🔍 Calm or Complacency?
Shorting volatility works—until it doesn’t. The last time traders were this aggressively short VIX, they got caught offside in February when trade fears spiked and the S&P 500 tumbled. Could September be déjà vu?
💬 My Take: Cautious[Bless], Not Paralyzed
My August portfolio was slightly up—but I’m not chasing. I’m watching[Lovely]:
📊 MA5 and MA12 for trend shifts
📈 RSI for momentum cracks
🔊 Volume for conviction
I’m cautious about risks, especially with stretched positioning and seasonal headwinds. If VIX pops, I’ll look for buy-the-dip setups—but only with confirmation.

Bottom Line: August was calm. September could be chaos. The crowd’s short volatility—but history says that’s when volatility bites back. Stay nimble, stay hedged, and don’t confuse calm with safety. 🧭📉

SeptemBEAR is here: Are Your Portfolio Ready for Volatility?

In September, the VIX may fly as we may see September Effect hit again. ------- 1. Is the market in danger with September effect approaching? 2. What's your strategy to cope with risks?

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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Is the market in danger with September effect approaching?\n2. What's your strategy to cope with risks?","image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ee35d02b8cacdda7a7168f1b0dd417c1"}],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"html":"<html><head></head><body>August wrapped with a whisper—not a bang. Hedge funds and large speculators are shorting the VIX at levels not seen since 2022, with net short positions hitting 92,786 contracts. That’s a massive bet on calm continuing. But history warns: when everyone’s on one side of the boat, it only takes a ripple to flip it. 🌊⚠️\n<br>\n🧠 What Is the September Effect?\n<br>\nSeptember has a reputation for being the market’s moodiest month.\n<br>\n📉 Historically the worst-performing month for the S&amp;P 500\n<br>\n🏦 Mutual funds rebalance, locking in gains or harvesting tax losses\n<br>\n🏖️ Traders return from summer break, bringing volume—and volatility\n<br>\n🧨 Macro catalysts (Fed, jobs, geopolitics) tend to cluster here\n<br>\nThis year, the setup feels especially fragile.\n<br>\nVIX remains below 15, 24% below its yearly average\n<br>\nFed rate cut expectations are rising\n<br>\nTrump drama is swirling again—from tariff spikes to geopolitical tension\n<br>\n🔍 Calm or Complacency?\n<br>\nShorting volatility works—until it doesn’t. The last time traders were this aggressively short VIX, they got caught offside in February when trade fears spiked and the S&amp;P 500 tumbled. Could September be déjà vu?\n<br>\n💬 My Take: Cautious<span class=\"teditor-emoji\">[Bless]</span>, Not Paralyzed\n<br>\nMy August portfolio was slightly up—but I’m not chasing. I’m watching<span class=\"teditor-emoji\">[Lovely]</span>:\n<br>\n📊 MA5 and MA12 for trend shifts\n<br>\n📈 RSI for momentum cracks\n<br>\n🔊 Volume for conviction\n<br>\nI’m cautious about risks, especially with stretched positioning and seasonal headwinds. If VIX pops, I’ll look for buy-the-dip setups—but only with confirmation.\n<br>\n<br>\nBottom Line: August was calm. September could be chaos. The crowd’s short volatility—but history says that’s when volatility bites back. Stay nimble, stay hedged, and don’t confuse calm with safety. 🧭📉\n<br></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>August wrapped with a whisper—not a bang. Hedge funds and large speculators are shorting the VIX at levels not seen since 2022, with net short positions hitting 92,786 contracts. That’s a massive bet on calm continuing. But history warns: when everyone’s on one side of the boat, it only takes a ripple to flip it. 🌊⚠️\n<br>\n🧠 What Is the September Effect?\n<br>\nSeptember has a reputation for being the market’s moodiest month.\n<br>\n📉 Historically the worst-performing month for the S&amp;P 500\n<br>\n🏦 Mutual funds rebalance, locking in gains or harvesting tax losses\n<br>\n🏖️ Traders return from summer break, bringing volume—and volatility\n<br>\n🧨 Macro catalysts (Fed, jobs, geopolitics) tend to cluster here\n<br>\nThis year, the setup feels especially fragile.\n<br>\nVIX remains below 15, 24% below its yearly average\n<br>\nFed rate cut expectations are rising\n<br>\nTrump drama is swirling again—from tariff spikes to geopolitical tension\n<br>\n🔍 Calm or Complacency?\n<br>\nShorting volatility works—until it doesn’t. The last time traders were this aggressively short VIX, they got caught offside in February when trade fears spiked and the S&amp;P 500 tumbled. Could September be déjà vu?\n<br>\n💬 My Take: Cautious<span class=\"teditor-emoji\">[Bless]</span>, Not Paralyzed\n<br>\nMy August portfolio was slightly up—but I’m not chasing. I’m watching<span class=\"teditor-emoji\">[Lovely]</span>:\n<br>\n📊 MA5 and MA12 for trend shifts\n<br>\n📈 RSI for momentum cracks\n<br>\n🔊 Volume for conviction\n<br>\nI’m cautious about risks, especially with stretched positioning and seasonal headwinds. If VIX pops, I’ll look for buy-the-dip setups—but only with confirmation.\n<br>\n<br>\nBottom Line: August was calm. September could be chaos. The crowd’s short volatility—but history says that’s when volatility bites back. Stay nimble, stay hedged, and don’t confuse calm with safety. 🧭📉\n<br></body></html>","text":"August wrapped with a whisper—not a bang. Hedge funds and large speculators are shorting the VIX at levels not seen since 2022, with net short positions hitting 92,786 contracts. That’s a massive bet on calm continuing. But history warns: when everyone’s on one side of the boat, it only takes a ripple to flip it. 🌊⚠️ 🧠 What Is the September Effect? September has a reputation for being the market’s moodiest month. 📉 Historically the worst-performing month for the S&P 500 🏦 Mutual funds rebalance, locking in gains or harvesting tax losses 🏖️ Traders return from summer break, bringing volume—and volatility 🧨 Macro catalysts (Fed, jobs, geopolitics) tend to cluster here This year, the setup feels especially fragile. VIX remains below 15, 24% below its yearly average Fed rate cut expectations are rising Trump drama is swirling again—from tariff spikes to geopolitical tension 🔍 Calm or Complacency? Shorting volatility works—until it doesn’t. The last time traders were this aggressively short VIX, they got caught offside in February when trade fears spiked and the S&P 500 tumbled. Could September be déjà vu? 💬 My Take: Cautious[Bless], Not Paralyzed My August portfolio was slightly up—but I’m not chasing. I’m watching[Lovely]: 📊 MA5 and MA12 for trend shifts 📈 RSI for momentum cracks 🔊 Volume for conviction I’m cautious about risks, especially with stretched positioning and seasonal headwinds. If VIX pops, I’ll look for buy-the-dip setups—but only with confirmation. Bottom Line: August was calm. September could be chaos. The crowd’s short volatility—but history says that’s when volatility bites back. Stay nimble, stay hedged, and don’t confuse calm with safety. 🧭📉","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/473386168524888","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":370,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1432,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/473386168524888"}