🔎 On the “Trump effect” and his BTC holdings

It is widely reported that Trump Media & Technology Group (or associated entities) bought roughly 11,500 BTC at an average cost of about US$115,000 per coin. 

That would mean a significant paper loss at current prices near US$90,700. 

Given this, there is incentive for pro-crypto policy pushes — perhaps to boost valuation. But whether “Trump steps in with major policy moves to rescue his portfolio” is speculative. I found no credible public source confirming that BTC-focused legislation or interventions are being calibrated primarily to serve his personal holdings.

Hence, while his and his companies’ holdings may create a bias, equating that with guaranteed policy-driven price rescues seems more conjecture than demonstrated fact.

Additionally, even if there are pro-crypto policies, crypto markets remain global and influenced by many macro factors (interest rates, global sentiment, regulation broadly, institutional flows...) — so any “rescue” would only be one of many influences, not a sure lever.

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📈 On BTC’s prospects: can it break through US$100,000 — or higher — by year-end?

There is some optimism among analysts:

Tom Lee, a well-known Bitcoin bull, recently reaffirmed that he thinks it is “very likely” BTC breaks US$100,000 before year-end. 

BTIG likewise sees potential for a “reflex rally” — a combination of seasonal trend and renewed demand — pushing BTC back to US$100,000. 

Another market strategist recently suggested there is a 91% chance that BTC will not close below current weekly lows — implying that the recent slide might mark the bottom, potentially setting the stage for a rebound. 

But there are headwinds and cautionary views:

Some analysts argue that recent bounce may be a “bull trap” — a temporary rebound before further decline, possibly toward lower support zones. 

Macroeconomic risks remain: global interest-rate decisions, broader equity-market correlations, and regulatory developments (especially in the US) still cast uncertainty. 

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🧮 My view: Likelihood of a year-end close above US$100,000

Given the technical rebound, seasonal tendencies, and bullish commentary from some analysts, I consider it plausible but not guaranteed that BTC could close the year above US$100,000.

If I were to estimate probabilities (informally): perhaps a 40–55% chance.

Key trigger points: renewed institutional inflows, easing macroeconomic pressures (e.g. interest-rate stabilisation), and broader sentiment rebound. Conversely, a surprise negative macro shock, tighter regulation, or major capital flight could derail that path.

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⚠️ What this means for investors (and holders)

Reliance on any “rescue” via political/corporate holdings (e.g. Trump-linked BTC) is risky. Policy is unpredictable, and markets are global and multi-factorial.

A rally to US$100,000+ seems within the realm of possibility — but only if supportive macro and on-chain conditions materialise.

As with all crypto investments, volatility remains high. Investors must be ready for both sharp upswings and deep drawdowns.