$NVDA$
The market has rebounded to recent highs, making the next three weeks uncertain once again. One notable risk signal ahead of FOMC is the reduction of 14k contracts in the long-dated 170C $NVDA 20260220 170.0 CALL$ . It’s uncommon to see institutions trimming long calls, but this doesn’t necessarily point to a big drop — it could simply reflect expectations for a prolonged consolidation phase, which would decay option time value.
This week’s institutional call selling is centered on the 187.5C $NVDA 20251212 187.5 CALL$ , hedged with the 195C $NVDA 20251212 195.0 CALL$ — similar strikes to last week, reinforcing limited upside expectations. Selling calls on strength continues to make sense.
The expected range remains $170–185, but avoid heavy sizing when selling puts during dips.
$SPY$
Going into Q4 triple witching, SPY’s primary objective is to work through the large stack of outstanding puts. As a result, $SPY$ is likely to chop within 660–680 until next week’s monthly expiration.
A brief sharp pullback on Tuesday is possible, but nothing overly concerning.
$AMD$
Another muted week is expected. Institutions opened a call spread — selling the 227.5C $AMD 20251212 227.5 CALL$ and buying the 242.5C $AMD 20251212 242.5 CALL$ . The short call strike is slightly above last week’s 222.5C.
Likely range: $190–227.5. Put activity is mostly hedging tail risk rather than expressing a directional view.
$INTC$
Maintaining the view of a $38–45 consolidation zone.
However, someone opened 10k contracts of the 50C $INTC 20251219 50.0 CALL$ . The intent is unclear; total premium was only about $320k. For many stocks this might look like retail flow — for Intel, it’s harder to interpret.
$TSLA$
This week’s institutional spread:
This structure theoretically caps Tesla below 490 for the week.
Oddly, a floor trade bought the weekly 490C, creating conflicting signals. For now, the lower range appears to be $400–420.
$META$
Most call selling is concentrated above 700, including the 720C $META 20251212 720.0 CALL$ . The weekly 690C shows mixed long/short activity.
Put flow clusters near 650–660. Given the gap-down setup, selling the 640P $META 20251212 640.0 PUT$ appears safer.
$AAPL$
Expected weekly range: $270–292.5. There is sporadic opening of various 300C positions across expiries, but hitting 300 this week is highly unlikely.
$ORCL$
Expected range: $200–240. Some traders opened bullish butterflies aiming for a spike — e.g., buy 250C, sell 2× 260C, buy 270C — a low-cost bet, but worthless unless ORCL moves into the 250–270 zone.
With ORCL trading near lows and limited downside risk, selling the 180P $ORCL 20251212 180.0 PUT$ is worth consideration.
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