$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ BTC.X$NVIDIA(NVDA)$  $Webull Corp(BULL)$ $Trump Media & Technology(DJT)$ Seeing a little cash slow down, but Santa should save the end of year. Holding.

Looking at the latest industry reports, the AI supply crunch shows no signs of easing anytime soon. $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$  $NVIDIA(NVDA)$  $iShares MSCI South Korea ETF(EWY)$  The key bottleneck remains advanced packaging. TSMC's monthly CoWoS capacity is expected to grow from around 70K wafers in 2025 to 130K–140K by the end of 2026, but even with that expansion, supply is still projected to trail demand by roughly 20%. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$  has reportedly locked in 800K–850K CoWoS wafers for 2026, which accounts for more than half of TSMC's annual CoWoS capacity. At the same time, TSMC's

$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ In short, AMD's after-hours pullback isn't really a verdict on the company's fundamentals, which still look solid to me. It feels more like a reaction to the unusually high expectations already built into a stock that had more than doubled by 2026 before this report came out. With Helios expansion and MI450 GPU deployments still in early stages, it seems like investors want clearer near-term revenue visibility before they're willing to push the next leg higher.

$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ Getting a bit confused from time to time is fine, especially on Mondays. TSMC already reported earnings. The next event is a full week away, which counts as long-term for people who think long-term means next Tuesday. We'll wait and see how things look closer to Friday. NVDA reports on 8/26. I know that's still a long way off, but it's doing the same thing as TSMC — the stock price before 8/26 will probably be higher than the $223.47 from 5/21. NVDA didn't actually enter bear market territory recently, while TSMC briefly did on 7/29. TSMC takes care of itself. It doesn't need anyone's help or confusion. TSMC at $406.79 is only an 11.48% premium over the ordinary shares, which is already weird enough to

$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ Looks like hedge funds were behind the quick sell-off from $420. Roughly the same number of puts at the $420 strike were bought right before the drop. They just whack the stack to make money on both sides.

$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ Media, social platforms, news articles, reporting — it's all a joke. Just three days ago the sky was falling, the universe was ending, the blackest days in semis, and now today they've done a complete 180. Suddenly everything is rosy, the outlook is wonderful. Don't listen to any of it, especially the negative.

$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ I accumulated around 1,400 shares of TSM over several months in 2021, buying between $100 and $120 a share. Total cost was about $160,000. I was selling puts and the shares would get put to me from time to time. By late 2023, it was pretty much dead money or a losing position. I decided to visit Taiwan to get a firsthand sense of the geopolitical risk that was weighing on the share price. The people I met there didn't seem worried about it. Kind of reminded me of visiting South Korea, where locals don't seem too concerned about North Korea either. Not sure if that's overconfidence on their part, but it was enough to convince me to hold on to my investment. Glad I did. It has more than tripled since the

$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ I was thinking back to a discussion we had about using dividends as income, and I compared it to how Warren Buffett capitalized on Coca Cola, bought in the 1970s and still holds. I think the bigger picture was missed there. My view is that chips are the new oil. Technology doesn't advance without them. Building a fab company takes around 10 years, and it's extremely hard for any startup to start from scratch. So I still see TSM as a growth company rather than a value company, and competition isn't an immediate concern. Here's how I look at the numbers: let's assume the stock doubles in 3 years, then 4 years after that, then 6 years after that, and after that it becomes a conventional value company with

$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ $Apple(AAPL)$  earnings today. Apple has always been one of TSM's biggest customers — historically either the largest or at least in the top two, depending on the year and product cycle.

$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$  Just a remark. I have enough shares for my own situation and my cost basis is very low. I'm not looking to add here. But if someone is watching for an entry, this could be one to keep on the radar. You can't time the market, but I think the share price will be much higher 2-3 years out. Tech and markets in general are unpredictable, and these are just my own thoughts, not investment advice. Everyone should do their own research and decide what risks they're comfortable with.

$iShares MSCI South Korea ETF(EWY)$ Japan is saying Korea has gotten a bit too cocky lately. Contract manufacturers in South Korea are raising prices and asking for a premium, almost like they are TSM. That might be true, but the way things are playing out, it looks like market makers could be using this to buy cheap. It looks super scary. Maybe taking the Asian long view and just parking it in an IRA for a year or so makes sense.

$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ Went through STX's Q4 2026 earnings transcript even though things got busy tonight. Overall, things look solid. I'm hoping it ends up being one of the few AI names that actually moves higher following earnings.

Market makers seem to be using the uncertainty around the FOMC rate decision and war news to shake out weak hands, liquidating both longs and shorts. They have quarterly targets to meet, so the window for this kind of manipulation is limited. The best approach is probably just to ignore it and not play their game. If they overdo it, they would end up wrecking the whole market and putting their own jobs at risk. Avoiding leverage and margin makes it pretty hard for them to cause any real damage. As a long-term investor, my plan is to just DCA the dips and hold. On the stocks I'm watching: $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$  could easily be a trillion-dollar company by year end. $Intel(INTC)$  seems lik

The weakness might be setting up something interesting here. There's an unusual combination playing out: supply is increasing and prices are rising at the same time. That tends to only happen when demand is running well ahead of available capacity. Reports indicate TSMC plans to raise foundry prices by up to 10% starting in 2027. The 2nm process, currently around $30,000 per wafer, could move above $33,000. Meanwhile, TSMC is still pushing aggressive capacity expansion. Baoshan 2nm capacity has reached around 20,000 wafers per month, new Kaohsiung capacity is coming online, the first-year 2nm output target is 45% higher than 3nm's first year, and 2nm capacity is expected to grow at around 70% CAGR from 2026 to 2028. The broader picture is that AI demand is pushing the semiconductor industr

$Amkor Technology(AMKR)$ This looks insanely oversold. The $1.5B investment from Nvidia came through recently, earnings and revenue beat, and it's the only advanced packaging play in the US. They're working side by side with TSM, Nvidia, AMD, and Intel to build out semiconductor manufacturing in the US.

$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ It feels like a lot of people haven't really been through a proper market correction lately. This is just how it goes with high-growth names. They run up faster than most, and they pull back just as quickly. The latest noise is about China supposedly encroaching on ASML's territory, which could hit TSM and others in the space. It's the kind of story that shakes out the nervous crowd while the bigger players pick up shares at a discount. A lot of people said they wanted these stocks on sale. Well, here it is. No one knows exactly where the absolute bottom sits, but a nearly 20% discount looks decent from where I stand.

$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$  I'll go on the chopping block and call green on TSM by the close. Traders are way too edgy and skeptical right now, while investors seem to be stepping in on a very cheap stock and price.

$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ Needham, probably one of the most bearish analysts out there, just raised their price target into the mid $500s if I remember correctly. And it was based on strong fundamentals. This sell-off feels completely ridiculous from where I stand.

$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ NVIDIA is putting $1.5B into Amkor packaging. AMKR announced that NVDA will provide a $1.5B prepayment under a multi-year advanced packaging and development agreement. The investment is meant to expand Amkor's U.S. advanced packaging capacity at its Arizona campus. The two companies will work together on next-generation AI and accelerated computing packaging technologies, covering high-density interconnects, heterogeneous integration, and advanced chip packaging and testing. Amkor already supports NVIDIA's data center processors, networking chips, and accelerated computing platforms. The AI infrastructure race is moving beyond just GPUs. Advanced packaging is becoming a critical bottleneck as systems g

$Intel(INTC)$ This is a pretty remarkable set of numbers. For a long-term perspective, the $1.1 billion loss reduction at IFS came with just a $1.4 billion increase in revenue year-over-year. That points to a serious level of absorption at what's still an early stage of utilization improvement, somewhere around 35%. Once the external volumes from companies like Apple, Google, Tesla, and others start flowing in and utilization moves toward the 90% range, the math suggests something like $5 billion to $7 billion in quarterly operating profit. That would translate to roughly $30 billion in annual operating profit, which is essentially the kind of money $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$  is c