Subramanyan
12-17 14:46

BoJ's recent and near future policy tightening, like interest rate hikes, can be expected to increase market volatility and could also lead to further falls in certain risk assets & cryptocurrencies in the near term. The potential for a significant market fall, however, is perhaps overplayed- it could be an episodic volatility rather than a systemic meltdown. 

Much of the immediate impact of a potential Dec rate hike is already factored into current market prices, which could mitigate a sharp, immediate shock. What would be more important is the forward guidance and the pace of future hikes in 2026. Lastly, divergence between the BoJ's tightening policy and other central banks like the Fed, which might be cutting rates in 2026 is a key driver of current market dynamics.

Santa Rally Starts? Can BoJ Rate Hike Land As Expected?
Market rebounds with Micron's earnings. Ahead of the BoJ decision, a rate hike is widely seen as almost a done deal. Markets broadly expect a 25 bps increase, which would lift the policy rate to its highest level in 30 years. Recently, markets have been buzzing about a potential major twist in Japan’s rate hike narrative. One line of thinking is that if Japan proceeds with a “normal” rate hike, it could mark a clear case of the “shoe dropping” — potentially setting the stage for a reversal in US equities. -------- Will market reversal stage? Can santa rally start?
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