BoJ's recent and near future policy tightening, like interest rate hikes, can be expected to increase market volatility and could also lead to further falls in certain risk assets & cryptocurrencies in the near term. The potential for a significant market fall, however, is perhaps overplayed- it could be an episodic volatility rather than a systemic meltdown.  Much of the immediate impact of a potential Dec rate hike is already factored into current market prices, which could mitigate a sharp, immediate shock. What would be more important is the forward guidance and the pace of future hikes in 2026. Lastly, divergence between the BoJ's tightening policy and other central banks like the Fed, which might be cutting rates in 2026 is a key driver of current market dynamics.

Yes the Santa rally was a thing last week, now it isn't anymore, it's done! My understanding is that Santa put a tariff on Rudolph's And the other reindeers carrots. Apparently the reindeer are on strike, and the logistics of delivering presents is a huge issue. Lucky Santa aready had great friends in John deer, that would take the reindeers place. But now it turns out... John deer is moving production to Mexico. Santa is very upset about this so he's removing the carrot tariff in favor of a  200% deer tariff.  Santa rally is back, tomorrow everything will be great again @Joanna Will  @Big Al Davis  @SPACE ROCK

I'm starting this week with a more cautious stance as U.S. equities edged lower, and the Nasdaq $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$  once again underperformed. The ongoing sell-off in AI-related stocks is clearly weighing on sentiment, raising questions over whether the usual year-end Santa Rally can still materialize under current conditions. What stands out to me is the continued weakness in big-cap tech. Names like Broadcom $Broadcom(AVGO)$   and Oracle $Oracle(ORCL)$  extended last week's declines, dragging on the broader tech sector. Broadcom's three consecutive dow

As we head into mid month December and what looks to be a shaky week, it is timely to look back at last week’s US economic reports to see where US economy is heading. Like it or not, there is “synergy” between the US economy and stock market. Jobs Opening and Labour Turnover surveys (JOLTs) The delayed JOLTs report for October 2025 was finally out. (see below) Job Openings were basically unchanged at 7.7 million, that was slightly better than market expectations. However, this headline strength masked signs of a cooling labor market: Weakening Worker Confidence: The most telling figure was Quits rate, that held steady at 1.8%, its lowest level since May 2020. This signals that workers are less confident in their ability to easily switch jobs for better pay or opportunities. Rising Layoffs:

Santa Claus might not come this year. I will stay in cash and wait for pull pullback rather than being fully invested.  Cash is power.

🌟🌟🌟We remember that childhood excitement of placing a lost tooth under the pillow & waking up to find a shiny coin in its place.  It is a simple act of faith, much like the one investors globally are doing now, hoping for their seasonal reward : the Santa Claus Rally. However the Santa Claus Rally is starting to feel a lot like that Tooth Fairy : a lovely idea that we desperately want to believe in but the evidence is getting a little shaky. The real bogeyman this holiday season is the Bank of Japan.  A potential BoJ rate hike is the "lump of coal" that could crash the party.  The culprit?  The massive Japan Carry Trade. Traders have borrowed trillions of yen at near zero interest rate and funelled that cash globally, fueling a massive market boom.  If Bank of

🌟🌟🌟It is that magical time of the year!  In Singapore, the satay is grilling, the chilli crabs are steaming and investors everywhere are eagerly waiting for their favourite seasonal gift : the Santa Claus Rally. Historically this refers to a market surge in the final 5 trading sessions of the year and the first 2 of the new year.  It is built on a cocktail of holiday cheer, optimistic portfolio win dow dressing and reduced trading volume.  The question on everyone's lips this December is : Will Santa show up this year or is the rally already priced in? The technical patterns for major indices are currently mixed, suggesting a market in search of direction after a massive run this year. The Grinch at the Bank of Japan? Just as visions of sugarplum profits dance in our he

No doubt on Santa. Boj rate cut rally 

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $S&P 500(.SPX)$ 📅 16Dec25 🇺🇸 | 17Dec25 🇳🇿 🧭 This is no longer a sentiment-led market Negative GEX remains firmly in control across $SPX, compressing upside and turning price action mechanical. Rallies are met with supply, weakness persists longer than expected, and positioning now outweighs narrative. This is a dealer-dominated tape, not an emotional one. ⚙️ $682 has become the market’s centre of gravity Positive gamma is stacked tightly between $681–$685, with the MVC anchored at $682. That zone is acting as a magnet, repeatedly pulling price back into balance. Below spot, negative gamma builds aggressively

Think santa rally in doubt mostly related to fears of overvaluation. Waiting for dips to buy more selectively.

For me, the recent U.S. employment data reinforces the “bad news is good news” narrative. Some softness in the labor market increases the odds of further Fed rate cuts, which is generally supportive for equities as long as the slowdown remains orderly rather than recessionary. That said, I’m watching the BOJ closely. A hike to 0.75% would be a meaningful shift, and historically BOJ tightening has coincided with higher global volatility. With U.S. stocks at record highs, a more cautious near-term stance feels reasonable, even if history doesn’t repeat perfectly. In terms of positioning, I’m neither fully in cash nor blindly all-in. I stay invested in core holdings while keeping some dry powder to deploy if macro or BOJ headlines trigger a pullback. If a Santa Claus rally arrives, I partici

$S&P 500(.SPX)$   $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$   $USD Index(USDindex.FOREX)$   Balance in time from cycle interval on frame time to get more point level position. Not worry for this day, S&P 500 index downtrend to 6785 meanwhile volatility on around 16 to 18 point for this weeks. However US Market Index still enough for this years to get new high records for historical performance 2025. Now where are we from wave cycle time frame for starting next years ? Possible back to story from US market index have gap point and Average point in line chart this years, if means thats to big gap may should be trending market have

[Tongue]  [Spurting]  [Facepalm]  [Duh]  

@KevinChenNYC Kevin Chen holds a PhD from the University of Lausanne, Switzerland, and launched his Wall Street career at Morgan Stanley, where he absorbed the analytical rigor of macroeconomic legends Byron Wien and Steven Roach. He maintains strong academic ties as a graduate-level instructor at New York University and marks 2026 as his tenth annual installment of top-10 global economic predictions. His 2025 forecast track record stands at 85% accuracy.2025 Forecast Track Record: 8 of 10 predictions correct (85% hit rate).Chen‘s standout call was forecasting a Q2 US stock correction—markets entered a bear market in April-May, with the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ plunging over 30%. Other accurate foreca

The year 2025, which is drawing to a close, saw many unexpected changes in the global financial markets. For example, $Gold - main 2602(GCmain)$ surged, European stock markets outperformed US stocks, and cryptocurrencies like $Bitcoin(BTC.USD.CC)$ experienced significant declines.2025 was also the year I spent the most time investing and researching in global markets. My travels included the UAE, Iraq, and India, and I conducted numerous investment sharing events in Canada and Italy. Within the US, I had the opportunity to attend training at Elon Musk's Starbase and the NASA Space Academy at the Marshall Space Center in Alabama.Many of the companies we've partnered with are listed on the New Yor

From my perspective, this tech-led pullback still looks more like a healthy correction than a confirmed trend reversal. After a powerful AI-driven rally, some consolidation was almost unavoidable. The Nasdaq $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$   underperforming doesn't automatically mean risk appetite is gone — it more likely reflects stretched positioning being unwound and expectations cooling off. Broadcom $Broadcom(AVGO)$  and Oracle $Oracle(ORCL)$  extending last week's weakness definitely grabs attention, especially with Broadcom marking its worst three-day drop since 2020. But context matte