A breakout is confirmed only if price holds above prior resistance with follow-through. Multiple closes, stable structure, and volume support matter more than a single high. If price quickly slips back into the old range, it is a failed rally driven by momentum chasing rather than conviction.
2. Adding at a key moving average
I prefer to wait for confirmation. A moving average is a zone, not a signal. Higher-probability adds come when price shows acceptance, such as a higher low or a strong close back above the average. Buying the first touch works in strong trends, but confirmation reduces false entries and drawdowns.
3. Technicals vs fundamentals or news
It depends on timeframe. Short to medium term, I trust price and technicals because they reflect real positioning. Medium to long term, fundamentals guide conviction, with technicals used for timing. When signals conflict, I reduce size or stay aside. Survival comes before being right.
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