1. Why Tesla hit new highs and then faded intraday

Tesla often exhibits short-term volatility around narratives rather than pure fundamentals. The recent comments about robotaxis without human safety drivers are an example of this. Such developments feed into the “vision” story that Tesla transcends a regular auto OEM, which can lift sentiment sharply but also lead to profit-taking when traders realise:

regulatory and safety hurdles remain substantial,

actual revenue from robotaxis is still hypothetical, and

valuation already embeds a lot of future growth.

So, hitting intraday highs before a retreat signals optimism on narrative catalysts but caution on cash flows and execution risk.

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2. Is a breakout above US$500 possible?

Yes, but not guaranteed and not linear. A breakout has conditions:

Drivers that could push it above US$500:

Clear progress on robotaxi testing that is not just experimental but moves toward commercial deployment.

Improving deliveries/production figures and margins, not just growth in units but profit quality.

AI/Autonomy proof points, for example real revenue from software or new monetisation streams.

Broader market risk appetite, especially if cyclical rotation dulls and growth leadership returns.

Risks that could cap or reverse the rally:

Regulatory pushback on robotaxi/safety claims.

Softening EV demand or pricing pressure in key markets.

Higher interest rates keeping long-duration growth multiples in check.

Macro volatility driving risk-off behaviour.

In technical terms, US$500 is both a psychological and structural resistance point. A sustained breakout would require a confluence of fundamental validation + market breadth support.

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3. 2026 Outlook: Higher or “Repeat of History”?

Repeat of history is a reasonable risk because Tesla’s stock has historically been driven by optics and expectations as much as by earnings.

Bullish thesis for 2026:

Real revenue from autonomy/licensing rather than just deliveries.

Better international sales mix and cost discipline improving margins.

Expanded services revenue (charging, software, fleet services).

A narrative shift from “future promise” to present earnings power.

Bearish thesis for 2026:

If robotaxi remains distant and regulatory friction intensifies.

If competition from legacy OEMs & Chinese EV players erodes market share or margins.

Rising interest rates persistently weigh on high-growth multiples.

Macro slowdown curbs consumer EV demand.

A core risk is that valuation expands based on future optionality, not present profits. That pattern has recurred in Tesla’s history: rapid gains on vision-driven catalysts, followed by retrenchment on execution realities.

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4. Practical Risk/Reward Considerations

Short-term traders may use narrative catalysts like robotaxi progress to trade volatility around key levels.

Long-term investors should watch:

Actual revenue recognition from autonomy/robotaxi, not just testing.

Sustainable free cash flow, margin improvements, and unit economics.

Regulatory milestones and safety determinations.

If Tesla merely repeats earlier patterns (big narrative, incremental delivery beats), valuation will stay sensitive.

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5. Summary View

Recent highs reflect optimism about autonomy more than core profitability.

US$500 breakout is plausible if autonomy/robotaxi signals become economically meaningful, but not guaranteed.

2026 trajectory will likely be shaped by tangible execution, not just narrative.

The market is no longer giving Tesla unlimited multiple expansion without clear evidence of next-generation revenue that matters today.