$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Bullish $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ Bullish $Micron Technology(MU)$ Bullish 18Dec25 🇺🇸|19Dec25 🇳🇿
🚨 New high of the day!
I’m noting the strength, but I’m not ignoring the noise. While price continues to press higher and structure tightens constructively, regulatory headlines around historical FSD marketing and macro signals pointing to fewer US rate cuts in 2025 sit in the background. For now, neither has disrupted structure, flow, or institutional behaviour. I treat this as risk awareness, not trend invalidation, and I let the chart decide when that changes.
📊 My Daily Structure And Technical Read
I’m focused on structure first, and today’s tape delivered a disciplined continuation rather than a euphoric blow off. $TSLA pushed into the upper range of the recent expansion and reclaimed the $489 band, which remains the key intraday and short term decision zone. Yesterday’s defence of the gold bottom near $464 was critical, not because it was dramatic, but because structure held while momentum cooled.
Today’s candle fully engulfed yesterday’s reversal and worked into the prior volume wick, signalling internal energy rebuilding rather than a reflex bounce. Across the 4H and 30m charts, price is riding the upper Keltner structure, with EMAs remaining positively stacked. The 13 and 21 EMA are accelerating higher, while the 55 EMA continues to act as a rising structural floor, not resistance.
RSI has pushed back through the neutral band after Wednesday’s reset, which is exactly how sustained trends behave when they want to extend. MacD has reset cleanly and is now curling higher again, controlled and constructive rather than stretched.
Liquidity pockets remain clearly defined. Below, the $469 to $464 zone is now a proven absorption area. Above, the $489 to $500 pocket remains magnetised, supported by both price behaviour and persistent options positioning. Volume needs to stay engaged and CVD needs to remain constructive, but so far the tape continues to confirm.
🔍 My View On Autonomy, FSD, And Strategic Advantage
I continue to see autonomy as Tesla’s core structural moat, and recent third-party validation reinforces that this advantage is widening, not narrowing. In China, Tesla’s FSD system successfully defended its top position in the D1EV Scenario Rankings, achieving a perfect score of 30 with zero deductions. This was not a single test. Tesla delivered flawless performance across six consecutive competitions, from Wuxi in June through Taizhou in November, adapting cleanly to every environment. That matters because it validates Tesla’s philosophy of seamless, all-scenario driving under real-world conditions, not controlled demos.
Technically, FSD Supervised v14.2.1.25 continues to show cadence acceleration rather than incremental improvement. Enhancements in urban navigation, pedestrian handling, safety logic, and manoeuvre smoothness are being reported alongside zero-intervention drives on familiar routes. End-to-end neural networks processing full 360-degree vision data remain central to this progress. Hardware, software, data, and training loops stay unified under one architecture, which compounds advantage with every release.
Tesla’s vision-only approach remains a decisive economic advantage. While competitors like Waymo rely on roughly 40 sensors per vehicle, including lidar and radar, Tesla operates with just 8 cameras. Removing the most expensive hardware components dramatically lowers unit cost and enables factory-scale deployment. Vision sensors are embedded invisibly into standard vehicle architecture, allowing autonomy to scale as a mass-market product rather than a bespoke science project. Every Tesla produced becomes autonomy-capable by default, which is a fundamentally different cost curve and scalability profile.
Optimus remains downstream of this autonomy stack. Recent demo stumbles highlight execution risk, but they do not alter the strategic logic. Robotics inherits perception, planning, and decision-making from FSD. Musk’s framing of robots as a long-duration value driver reflects this linkage. I treat Optimus as optionality that compounds over time, not as a near-term valuation requirement.
🌍 Global Demand And Product Validation
I’m seeing demand durability continue to reinforce the autonomy and software-led narrative across key international markets. In the UK, Tesla leads year-to-date with 42,270 deliveries, capturing 9.6% market share, while holding both the #1 and #2 best-selling EV spots with Model Y at 18,890 units and Model 3 at 16,361. In Spain, Tesla secured two positions in the 2026 Top 10 long-range EV rankings, with Model S reaching 744 km and Model 3 leading at 750 km. More importantly, Model 3 was named the most sensible buy of the moment, reflecting efficiency, software-enabled range unlocks, charging network advantage, and total cost performance. I treat this as confirmation that Tesla’s software-first, vertically integrated approach continues to translate directly into real-world demand, even in competitive European markets where incentives are uneven and competition is dense.
📰 My Read On Dark Pool Positioning And Institutional Flow
Flow remains aligned with structure, and institutional validation has started to re-emerge alongside price stability. CICC has raised its $TSLA price target to $500 from $450 and reiterated an Outperform rating. The firm specifically cited breakthroughs in FSD performance and the expanding potential of Tesla’s AI and robotics initiatives as the drivers of its upgraded outlook. I view this less as a headline catalyst and more as confirmation that institutional models are increasingly tying autonomy progress to valuation durability.
Options positioning continues to support this view. Persistent large call open interest remains concentrated around the $500 strike, signalling positioning persistence rather than short-dated speculation. Off-exchange activity continues to show absorption into weakness and expansion into strength, which aligns with accumulation within structure rather than distribution.
🎯 My Trend Map And What I Am Watching Next
My framework stays disciplined. Holding above the $489 reclaim zone keeps $TSLA in expansion mode, with the $500 liquidity pocket acting as the next structural test. Acceptance above that area opens room for further momentum if volume confirms and CVD remains constructive. Failure to hold would likely rotate price back toward the $469 to $464 demand zone, which I now view as structurally validated support.
Macro context matters, even if it has not disrupted structure yet. Fewer expected US rate cuts in 2025 remain a background headwind for duration-sensitive growth, but so far tech leadership continues to offset that pressure. Semiconductors remain the leading indicator. $MU’s recent earnings beat and sharp follow-through reinforce that the broader AI and compute cycle is still internally confirmed, which supports duration in names like $TSLA rather than undermining it.
From a longer-term perspective, external valuation work is starting to reflect this multi-pillar narrative. One long-duration model from 24/7 Wall St. projects $TSLA reaching $1,116.86 by 2030, driven by FSD and robotaxi monetisation, energy storage scale, and Optimus adoption. I treat that as a third-party scenario, not a target, but it highlights how autonomy, energy, and robotics are increasingly being modelled as core value drivers rather than side narratives.
🔋 Energy And Infrastructure Optionality
Tesla’s energy business continues to reinforce the thesis that this is no longer just an auto company. The proposed $140M Megapack energy storage base in Ripon, California would deploy more than 150 Megapacks in a heavy industrial zone, creating one of the region’s largest battery storage sites. Projects like this position Tesla as grid infrastructure, capable of backing up power networks during peak demand. While policy debates lag, Tesla continues to install energy capacity at scale, effectively turning towns into distributed batteries.
🛠️ Manufacturing And Cost Moat
Recent publication of Tesla’s international patent WO 2025/259916 A1 provides a rare look into its manufacturing edge. The patent details a method for producing high-performance structural aluminum from recycled scrap metal, directly enabling gigacasting at scale. By chemically balancing impurities rather than eliminating them, Tesla can achieve structural strength and ductility comparable to virgin alloys, without post-casting heat treatment. This supports single-piece castings, lowers energy use, reduces scrap, and insulates Tesla from raw material volatility. I view this as a quiet but powerful reinforcement of Tesla’s cost, speed, and supply-chain resilience advantages.
Timeframe always matters. Short term momentum cooled earlier this week while structure stayed intact. That reset has now done its job. I let indicators guide my short term execution, but structure continues to decide my longer term positioning.
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