$TSLA 4Q delivs came in below the 423K IR-derived consensus. Actual 4Q delivs of 418.2K were -15.6% YoY vs 2024 4Q of 495.6K following expiration of the $7,500 EV credit on 9/30. For FY 2025, TSLA delivs were 1,636.1K -8.6% YoY and its second consecutive YoY decline. 4Q energy storage deployed of 14.2 GWh was +29% YoY.
Consistent with the release, we expect WS analysts to reduce their FY’26 TSLA consensus delivs ests of 1,805K (+10% YoY implied) and FY’26 Adj EPS of $2.20, the progress on unsupervised autonomy notwithstanding.
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