Looking ahead to 2026, I don’t think it’s as simple as “another straight bull run” or “market crash incoming.” It feels more like a year where returns are still there, but you actually have to be selective.

For U.S. equities, I think the S&P 500 can still move higher, but probably not with the same easy momentum we saw before. Earnings growth will matter more than just multiple expansion. If rate cuts come gradually and the economy avoids a hard landing, double-digit gains are still possible — but they won’t be evenly spread.

On AI, I do expect some rotation. Semiconductors won big early, but I wouldn’t be surprised if leadership slowly shifts toward memory, software, and SaaS companies that actually turn AI spending into recurring revenue. Hardware started the race, but monetisation comes later.

Competition in semiconductors will definitely get tougher. Margins won’t stay this high forever, so stock selection matters more than just buying the whole sector.

One thing I agree with most banks on: gold still looks supported. With geopolitics, debt levels, and long-term inflation concerns, it makes sense as a hedge even if equities keep climbing.

If I had to guess, I see the S&P 500 ending 2026 higher than today — but with more volatility and more rotations along the way. Not a straight line up, but still an upward trend.