News and my thoughts from the past week (05Oct2026) The fuel cluster (📷 1–4): 1. 📷 Diesel will “not return to normal for a year.” Energy executives in the Dallas Fed survey expect high fuel costs to persist — with pump signs already showing diesel above US$8/gallon in places and petrol above US$6. This is no longer a spike; it is being budgeted as a condition. - Financial Times Diesel above US$8/gallon at the pump (FT, via Benson) 2. 📷 China’s refiners suspend October fuel exports; PetroChina cancels cargoes. The world’s swing supplier of refined products is keeping its fuel at home. - Reuters, 1 October China refiners suspend October fuel exports (Reuters, via Benson) 3. 📷 India’s MRPL cancels three export tenders (diesel, jet fuel, reformate) after a refinery fire. - hydrocarbonprocessin

Economic Calendar (05Oct2026) caption...Economic calendar for the week (source: Investing.com) After last week’s triple-feature (RBA, PCE, payrolls), this week is deliberately quiet — which makes each item carry more weight, and leaves the tape more exposed to headlines than to data. China is on Golden Week holiday Monday to Wednesday, thinning Asia liquidity. 1. FOMC minutes (Wednesday 7 October, 2:00 pm ET). The one genuine event of the week: the record of the meeting that delivered the first rate rise in three years (to 3.75–4.00%). After Friday’s soft payrolls (+29K — see below), the minutes tell us how much of the decision was inflation-fighting conviction versus insurance. Watch the language on oil pass-through and on how many participants wanted to signal another rise in October. [I

These strategies are somewhat useful lately with high market volatilities. Yet to experience 100% win rate due to stock selections and timing but still good.

I find both strategies interesting, but I wouldn’t take the “100% win rate” literally. CNBC’s “Markets in Turmoil” makes sense psychologically — extreme fear often marks a bottom — but it’s based on limited historical context. Similarly, the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ being higher a year later reflects long-term upward bias, not a guaranteed signal. The $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ 35/15 rule feels more practical since it measures market sentiment. High VIX shows panic, low VIX shows complacency, but I see it as a guideline rather than a strict rule — markets can stay fearful or calm longer than expected. I wouldn’t rely on t

yes. companies keep growing revenue and earnings. war will end. index keep pushing out lousy companies and bringing in profit making ones. index always go up long term. war and news are short term. inflation is real from money printing. money needs to go or held somewhere. where better than the stock market which is more liquid than property for example.

Long Rally on 2026 | US Market Index Performance $MasterCard(MA)$   $Visa(V)$   $S&P 500(.SPX)$   US market index still have momentum on 2026 and continues movement to get score All time high in next season (Q2 to Q4). Not changes from traditional event in historical performance every 4 years. ■ 2018 - 2019 and  2022 -2023 Gap point from S&P 500 market index  around 600 to 800 point in line position and from US Dollar index 88 to 99 and 99 to 107  ■ all trade market breakout to downtrend after halving bitcoin season (2years) ■ Now prepared to get momentum on 2026 -2027 ■ Digital payment product possible fast&nb

Market Outlook of S&P500 (26Jan2026) Technical Analysis Overview MACD Indicator The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has completed a top crossover, which implies a bearish outlook. Moving Averages The price action, as depicted by the candlesticks, is currently situated above both the 50-day and 200-day moving average (MA) lines. This positioning indicates a bullish trend in both the short-term and long-term outlooks. Furthermore, both the 50 MA and the 200 MA are trending upward, reinforcing the positive trend. Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) The three Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) lines are converging. We can expect a change from the current bullish trend after the 3 lines have completed their overlap. Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF)

One day does not make a trend.  If we bought with convictions after research, we can consider another purchase if there is adequate margin of safety.  $Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO)$   $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$  

My Investing Muse (19Jan2026) Layoffs, Bankruptcy & Closure news Big Tech is quietly moving jobs overseas. 52% of tech and banking professionals say their companies will increase hiring in India in 2026. 38% say those hires are replacing US jobs. 93% of employees at global firms expect India's headcount to keep expanding. Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Uber, eBay… the shift is real. This is not globalisation. It is workforce offshoring in plain sight. - IB Times CITIGROUP Layoffs -- They are done with participation trophies. Jane Fraser: “We are not graded on effort. We are judged on results.” This week: 1,000 jobs cut. Target: 20,000+ total. - X user Amanda Goodall My Final Thoughts War threats against Iran and Greenland remain unresolved despite diplomatic efforts, heightening global con

News and my thoughts from the past week (19Jan2026)TRUMP THREATENS TARIFFS OVER GREENLAND "I may put a tariff on countries if they don’t go along with Greenland because we need Greenland for national security." - ClashReportBig Banks Are Secretly Part-Owners of Super-Risky Loan Funds And That Increases The Risk Of A 2008 Type Crisis with Private Credit - X user Kristen ShaughnessyBREAKING: Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent just CONFIRMED, we’re bleeding AT LEAST $600 BILLION in FRAUDULENT spending EVERY SINGLE YEAR! Elon Musk says that’s the LOW END! - X user Gunther EaglemanTomorrow, in an unprecedented move, President Trump is expected to announce an "emergency power auction" that would force technology giants to pay for new power plants. The initiative is expected to construct $15 BILLION wor

Market Outlook of S&P500 (19Jan2026) Technical Analysis Overview MACD Indicator The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has completed a top crossover, which implies a bearish outlook. Moving Averages The price action, as depicted by the candlesticks, is currently situated above both the 50-day and 200-day moving average (MA) lines. This positioning indicates a bullish trend in both the short-term and long-term outlooks. Furthermore, both the 50 MA and the 200 MA are trending upward, reinforcing the positive trend. Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) The three Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) lines are showing a bullish outlook as they continue to fan upwards. Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) currently registers at 0.11 and is also trending upward

short

TQQQ

$S&P 500(.SPX)$  A strong January does tilt probabilities in favour of a constructive 2026, but the path is unlikely to be linear. U.S. equities: Double-digit gains remain plausible, though harder than in prior years. Valuations are elevated, so returns will depend more on earnings delivery than multiple expansion. Expect higher volatility and sharper rotations rather than a broad, smooth rally. Relative performance: The U.S. may outperform on absolute earnings quality, but could lag selectively versus parts of Asia and Europe where valuations are lower and policy cycles are more accommodative. Leadership may narrow rather than broaden. AI leadership rotation: Near term, memory and infrastructure stocks benefit from capacity tightness and

From my perspective, the strong January start in 2026 is an encouraging signal, but not a guarantee. The "January effect" works more as a sentiment and momentum indicator than a forecasting tool. A positive January usually tells me risk appetite is alive and liquidity conditions are supportive, yet the real determinant for the rest of the year will still be earnings delivery and macro stability, not seasonality alone. For U.S. equities, I don't automatically assume another straight-line double-digit rally. Valuations are no longer cheap, especially for mega-cap tech, and the market has already priced in a lot of optimism around AI, rate cuts, and soft-landing narratives. I think the U.S. can still post positive returns in 2026, but the path is likely to be more volatile and more selective