Economic Preview: Key Data Releases for January 2026 (week of 19Jan2026)
Martin Luther King Jr. Day
In the coming week, the United States will observe Martin Luther King Jr. Day on Monday, January 19. As a result, it will be a public holiday, and financial markets in the U.S. will be closed in observance.
Key Economic Releases in China
On the same day, China is scheduled to release its year-on-year Gross Domestic Product (GDP) results for the fourth quarter. The forecast for this period stands at 4.4%, compared to the previous quarter’s figure of 4.8%. Monitoring these results will be important, as they may influence global market sentiment.
Significant U.S. Events and Data Releases
On January 21, attention will turn to the United States as President Trump is set to deliver a speech. This event has the potential to create volatility in the markets, depending on the topics addressed and the market’s reaction.
Additionally, the U.S. will release its quarter-on-quarter GDP results for the third quarter, with forecasts indicating an expected growth of 4.3%. This represents a notable improvement from the previous quarter’s figure of 3.8%.
Initial jobless claims, which previously stood at 198,000, will also be released. This data point is closely watched by the Federal Reserve and will play an important role as they review their upcoming interest rate decision.
Inflation and Federal Reserve Considerations
The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, was previously at 2.8% year-on-year for November 2025. This metric will be a key consideration for the Fed’s interest rate decision. Should the PCE Price Index rise, discussions around potential interest rate hikes may intensify, as opposed to possible rate cuts. Recent commentary from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has heightened concerns, although he has received strong support from the central banking community, including backing from previous Fed chairs.
Other Major Economic Indicators
Crude oil inventories are also set to be released in the coming week. These figures serve as a leading indicator, reflecting how producers anticipate future demand and consumption within the economy.
Furthermore, the S&P Global Services PMI and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI will be published. Previous readings for both indicators have shown growth, signalling continued expansion in the services and manufacturing sectors.
Earnings Calendar (19Jan2026)
Procter & Gamble (PG): Stock and Financial Performance Overview
Stock Price Performance and Analyst Sentiment
Over the past year, Procter & Gamble’s stock price has declined by 7.9%, reflecting a steady downward trend in its one-year chart. Technical analysis currently offers a “Neutral” outlook, while analyst sentiment remains positive, issuing a “Buy” recommendation. The consensus price target is $165.68, indicating a potential upside of 14.63%. With a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of approximately 21, PG is considered fairly valued in comparison to the consumer staples industry average P/E of 21.8.
10-Year Financial Performance
PG has demonstrated steady financial growth over the past decade. Revenue increased from $65.2 billion in 2016 to $84.2 billion in 2025, marking a 10-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.8%.
Gross profit rose from $32.3 billion in 2016 to $43.12 billion in 2025, with the company achieving its highest gross profit in 2024. The 10-year median gross profit margin stands at 49.7%, and the median margin for free cash flow over the same period is a robust 17.2%.
The company maintains a healthy balance sheet, with debt over assets at 0.3.
Profitability and Shareholder Returns
Operating profit has grown from $13.4 billion in 2016 to $20.45 billion in 2025. Dividends per share have consistently increased, rising from $2.66 in 2016 to $4.08 in 2025. Earnings per share (EPS) also reflect strong performance, growing from $3.36 in 2016 to $6.51 in 2025.
Earnings Outlook and Investment Consideration
Looking ahead to the upcoming earnings report, Procter & Gamble is projected to deliver earnings per share (EPS) of $1.86, alongside expected revenue of $22.34 billion. These anticipated results provide insight into the company’s ongoing performance and may serve as key indicators for evaluating its future growth trajectory.
Given these projections, as well as the company’s historical track record of consistent revenue and profit growth, Procter & Gamble warrants further research and analysis by investors seeking stability and long-term value.
Market Outlook of S&P500 (19Jan2026)
Technical Analysis Overview
MACD Indicator
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has completed a top crossover, which implies a bearish outlook.
Moving Averages
The price action, as depicted by the candlesticks, is currently situated above both the 50-day and 200-day moving average (MA) lines. This positioning indicates a bullish trend in both the short-term and long-term outlooks. Furthermore, both the 50 MA and the 200 MA are trending upward, reinforcing the positive trend.
Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs)
The three Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) lines are showing a bullish outlook as they continue to fan upwards.
Chaikin Money Flow (CMF)
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) currently registers at 0.11 and is also trending upward. This reading indicates that there is more buying pressure than selling, which is typically interpreted as a positive signal for future price movement.
More Technical Analysis
Based on the daily interval, 17 indicators display a “Buy” rating, while 4 display a “Sell” rating. This leads to a “Strong Buy” rating based on the daily interval.
CNN Fear & Greed Index
The market has entered the “Greed” region with an index score of 62.
The market continues to trend towards the “Greed” region from the chart above.
Based on the data above, most technical indicators lean towards a “Bullish” outlook in the coming day. However, the top cross (daily interval) from MACD suggests a more “Bearish” tone. In consideration, I lean towards a “Bearish” outlook.
News and my thoughts from the past week (19Jan2026)
TRUMP THREATENS TARIFFS OVER GREENLAND "I may put a tariff on countries if they don’t go along with Greenland because we need Greenland for national security." - ClashReport
Big Banks Are Secretly Part-Owners of Super-Risky Loan Funds And That Increases The Risk Of A 2008 Type Crisis with Private Credit - X user Kristen Shaughnessy
BREAKING: Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent just CONFIRMED, we’re bleeding AT LEAST $600 BILLION in FRAUDULENT spending EVERY SINGLE YEAR! Elon Musk says that’s the LOW END! - X user Gunther Eagleman
Tomorrow, in an unprecedented move, President Trump is expected to announce an "emergency power auction" that would force technology giants to pay for new power plants. The initiative is expected to construct $15 BILLION worth of new power plants. - X user The Kobeissi Letter
The Fed's repo injections, totaling over $420B recently, aim to stabilize short-term funding and keep rates in target. This could support markets by easing liquidity strains, potentially lifting stocks and bonds. However, critics see it as a sign of banking stress or fuel for speculation, risking inflation or bubbles. Views vary; monitor for sustained trends. - Grok
Tesla built the most advanced lithium refinery in the world and it is very clean - Elon Musk
Estimates show that it would cost the US $700 billion to buy Greenland. Meanwhile, the US spent $1.2 TRILLION on Federal debt interest expense in 2025 alone. The US spends 1.7 Greenlands PER YEAR just on interest expense. - X user The Kobeissi Letter.
*JPMORGAN CEO JAMIE DIMON SAYS TRUMP’S CREDIT CARD CAP WOULD HURT CONSUMERS AND THE ECONOMY - Investing
Agreed. And still, return on investment will continue to fall, almost all AI companies will go bankrupt, and much of the AI spending will be written off. Will it be the Panic of 2026? 2027? Does not have to be. - X user Michael Burry.
My Investing Muse (19Jan2026)
Layoffs, Bankruptcy & Closure news
Big Tech is quietly moving jobs overseas. 52% of tech and banking professionals say their companies will increase hiring in India in 2026. 38% say those hires are replacing US jobs. 93% of employees at global firms expect India's headcount to keep expanding. Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Uber, eBay… the shift is real. This is not globalisation. It is workforce offshoring in plain sight. - IB Times
CITIGROUP Layoffs -- They are done with participation trophies. Jane Fraser: “We are not graded on effort. We are judged on results.” This week: 1,000 jobs cut. Target: 20,000+ total. - X user Amanda Goodall
My Final Thoughts
War threats against Iran and Greenland remain unresolved despite diplomatic efforts, heightening global concern. Increasing military activity raises questions about financial motivations and whether attention is being diverted from other key issues.
The S&P 500 is stable amidst global uncertainty. Investors are watching earnings reports and company outlooks for guidance on market direction.
AI’s growth relies on electricity and water, with water now a larger challenge than energy supply. Venezuelan oil sales may help, but federal fraud and inadequate reinvestment in infrastructure pose risks to the country's economic strength. The midterm elections bring further uncertainty, with a greater need to focus on domestic priorities.
A price gap between physical and exchange-traded silver is fuelling concerns over market manipulation, drawing attention from both investors and regulators.
Financial Strategy and Outlook
Let us spend within our means, invest only what we can afford to lose, and avoid leverage. Let us review our current holdings with the intention of divesting from businesses that are losing their competitive advantages. Additionally, I will consider adding both hedging strategies and defensive positions to our portfolio to mitigate risk.
As we move forward, it is crucial to conduct thorough due diligence before assuming any new responsibilities.
Wishing everyone a successful week ahead.
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