(Part 1 of 5) Economic Preview: Key Data Releases for January 2026 (week of 19Jan2026)

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases for January 2026 (week of 19Jan2026)

Martin Luther King Jr. Day

In the coming week, the United States will observe Martin Luther King Jr. Day on Monday, January 19. As a result, it will be a public holiday, and financial markets in the U.S. will be closed in observance.

Key Economic Releases in China

On the same day, China is scheduled to release its year-on-year Gross Domestic Product (GDP) results for the fourth quarter. The forecast for this period stands at 4.4%, compared to the previous quarter’s figure of 4.8%. Monitoring these results will be important, as they may influence global market sentiment.

Significant U.S. Events and Data Releases

On January 21, attention will turn to the United States as President Trump is set to deliver a speech. This event has the potential to create volatility in the markets, depending on the topics addressed and the market’s reaction.

Additionally, the U.S. will release its quarter-on-quarter GDP results for the third quarter, with forecasts indicating an expected growth of 4.3%. This represents a notable improvement from the previous quarter’s figure of 3.8%.

Initial jobless claims, which previously stood at 198,000, will also be released. This data point is closely watched by the Federal Reserve and will play an important role as they review their upcoming interest rate decision.

Inflation and Federal Reserve Considerations

The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, was previously at 2.8% year-on-year for November 2025. This metric will be a key consideration for the Fed’s interest rate decision. Should the PCE Price Index rise, discussions around potential interest rate hikes may intensify, as opposed to possible rate cuts. Recent commentary from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has heightened concerns, although he has received strong support from the central banking community, including backing from previous Fed chairs.

Other Major Economic Indicators

Crude oil inventories are also set to be released in the coming week. These figures serve as a leading indicator, reflecting how producers anticipate future demand and consumption within the economy.

Furthermore, the S&P Global Services PMI and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI will be published. Previous readings for both indicators have shown growth, signalling continued expansion in the services and manufacturing sectors.

@TigerStars

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Rate Cuts Delayed to June? Pullback Coming, Would You Hedge?

December core CPI eased to 2.6% YoY, a four-year low and broadly in line or slightly better than expectations. Yet the report failed to ignite a risk-on rally. Rate markets are now highly aligned: no cut in January, unlikely in March, with June priced as the earliest window. More notably, professional investors are already hedging against a more extreme scenario—no rate cuts even in 2026. If soft CPI can’t lift markets, what data would actually shift rate-cut expectations? With June as the first priced cut, is the market still underestimating “higher for longer” risk?

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