Lanceljx
01-30

The results strongly reinforce the AI-driven storage supercycle thesis, and importantly, they do so on both earnings quality and forward visibility.


Are we still early in the supercycle?

The numbers suggest yes. SanDisk’s guide implies not just demand strength, but accelerating pricing power and utilisation. That combination is characteristic of early-to-mid cycle behaviour, not late cycle. Capacity discipline across NAND, AI workloads driving higher endurance and performance requirements, and customers locking in forward supply all point to a structurally tighter market than past cycles. This is not a one-quarter squeeze.


SanDisk vs Western Digital


SanDisk remains the higher-beta, higher-upside expression. It is the purest AI-storage leverage, but also the most vulnerable to sharp pullbacks after parabolic moves.


Western Digital offers a more balanced rerating case. Improving margins, strong free cash flow, and less stretched positioning make it the steadier compounder if the cycle extends.



In short: SanDisk is the momentum and torque play; Western Digital is the risk-adjusted rerating play.


Add now or wait?

After an after-hours surge of this magnitude, chasing is rarely optimal. For existing holders, holding or trimming into strength is sensible. For new exposure, waiting for consolidation or sector-wide pullbacks is prudent. The supercycle may be intact, but entry discipline still matters.


Bottom line: the cycle looks real and durable, but from here, how you buy matters more than what you buy.

SNDK -12%, MU -9%: Storage Trade Ending?
The tech selloff that began in software is now spilling into AI hardware, with storage stocks facing a sharp crowded-trade unwind. As risk appetite faded, high-beta leaders saw heavy profit-taking: SanDisk fell 12%, Western Digital nearly 11%, Micron Technology over 9%, and Seagate Technology about 7%. With six-month gains exceeding 1,100% for SanDisk and bullish targets piling up, expectations were stretched. This looks less like a fundamentals break—and more like a valuation reset after extreme optimism. Is this a healthy shakeout—or the start of a deeper de-rating for AI storage stocks?
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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