Mag 7 Earnings Scoreboard: Was Microsoft Crash Overreaction?

Tiger_comments
01-30
Reward Tiger-CoinsReward 500 Tiger-coins

Four of the Mag 7 have reported earnings this week, and the divergence is getting very real.

Meta surged +10% against the tape. Microsoft wiped out $357B in market cap, the 2nd-largest single-session value drop in stock market history. Tesla and Apple were underwhelming. Little price reaction.

Let’s break down the scoreboard for these four mega-cap tech giants.

🏆 The Winners

$Apple(AAPL)$: “Ecosystem Dominance at Scale”

Revenue $143.8B, EPS $2.84 — a clean beat across the board.

Why it’s on the winners list: Ultra-high user loyalty powered iPhone revenue +23%. Even more impressive, Greater China revenue flipped sharply higher to +38% YoY, crushing market concerns.

A record 48.2% gross margin proves Apple’s unmatched ability to leverage its supply chain and protect profitability.

$Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$: The Ad King’s AI Magic

Revenue $59.9B, with ad revenue growth hitting +23%.

AI is making Meta’s ad targeting insanely efficient. Even with aggressive 2026 capex plans, Meta’s 1Q revenue guidance came in far above consensus — the “re-acceleration” story fully outweighed fears around spending.

💀 The Underperformers

$Microsoft(MSFT)$: Azure “Tiny Slowdown” That Triggered a Bloodbath

Revenue and EPS both beat expectations, but Azure growth slowed to 38%, with next-quarter guidance slipping further to 37%–38%. Two straight quarters of deceleration raised a brutal question: Is AI monetization lagging the pace of GPU buildout?

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ : A Crossroad With an Unclear Narrative

Auto gross margin (ex-credits) rebounded to 17.9%.

Tesla unexpectedly announced a $2B investment into xAI, sparking related-party concerns. Meanwhile, FSD subscription penetration is still far from Musk’s target, leaving the “2026 margin recovery” story unfinished.

Why Did Microsoft Crash? Was It a “Wrongful Kill”?

In the market’s eyes, owning Microsoft means buying growth acceleration.

So when Azure guidance slid from ~40% to ~37%, investors didn’t see “still growing.” They saw a sign that growth could be peaking.

That kind of marginal slowdown is exactly what triggers a high-multiple reset.

Cash Flow Tells the Real Story: Operating cash flow came in strong at $35.8B. But free cash flow dropped to only $5.9B, sharply down QoQ. Next-quarter gross margin guidance also dropped to 65%, adding more pressure.

The “Boosted” Profit From OpenAI: Microsoft’s net income this quarter included $7.6B of non-operating gains tied to its OpenAI investment. If you strip that out, the core operating profit quality looks far less impressive — and the market noticed.

Questions for the community:

  1. Would you buy Microsoft here — yes or no? Is $400 a good “dip-buy” level?

  2. Can Meta still be chased higher after the +10% move?

  3. Apple says memory cost inflation is “not a concern”… so why isn’t the stock moving?

  4. Will Tesla’s long-term narrative actually deliver in 2026 — or keep slipping?

Leave your comments to win tiger coins~

Microsoft -10%! Overreaction? A Buy at $400?
Microsoft sank 10% despite solid fundamentals. Q2 revenue grew 15% YoY in constant currency, beating expectations, with Azure up 38% and Microsoft 365 Commercial rising 14%, driven by steady subscriber and pricing gains. However, ongoing supply-chain constraints capped upside versus buy-side hopes, reviving concerns over near-term AI monetization and delivery capacity.
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
Reward 500 Tiger-coinsDeadline to 02/12 10:25
The originator will select the best recovery and allocate Tiger coins before the reward ends
Reward-post

Comments

  • Shyon
    01-30
    Shyon
    在我看来,微软的 $微软(MSFT)$ 下跌看起来像是估值重置,而不是业务破产。Azure仍在以非常高的水平增长,但市场拥有MSFT是为了加速,而不是减速。我会很谨慎,但也很有建设性——400美元感觉是一个合理的首次入场,尽管我会慢慢扩大规模,而不是全押。

    $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ 对我来说是最明显的赢家。+10%的增长得到了真正的广告重新加速和可见的人工智能驱动的效率提升的支持。我不会追逐垂直反弹,但在盘整或回调时,这看起来仍然像是您想要持有的股票。

    苹果 $苹果(AAPL)$ 客观上取得了强劲的业绩,但该股表现平平,因为预期已经很高,并且没有出现新的增长叙事。特斯拉的 $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ 长期人工智能和自主愿景仍然引人注目,但由于执行延迟和混合信号,目前它仍然是希望多于证据。

    @Tiger_comments @TigerStars @TigerClub

  • icycrystal
    01-31
    icycrystal

    $Microsoft(MSFT)$ Is $400 a good "dip-buy" level? Wall Street analysts maintain a "Strong Buy" consensus, with an average price target of over $600 for the next 12 months, implying significant upside potential from current levels. The lowest analyst price target is around $450, so while $400 is below that specific floor, the overall sentiment is that the current price is a strong entry point given the long-term forecasts and continued Azure cloud growth.


    $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ Can it still be chased higher? Analysts are extremely bullish, viewing the AI spending not as a risk, but as a major growth catalyst that is already improving ad efficiency and engagement. Price targets have been raised across the board, with some as high as $1,144. The consensus is that the fundamental narrative has shifted, supporting further upside.

  • koolgal
    01-31
    koolgal
    🌟4 Titans are at a crossroad. Conviction is being tested. Investors are forced to choose whether they trust the story or the noise.

    Microsoft: Would I buy at $400?  Yes.  Its dip isn't about weakness.  It is about investors flinching at its AI Capex & slowing cloud growth. Yet long term AI enterprise engine remains intact.

    $400 is the level where weak hands panic & strong hands accumulate.

    Meta: Can it be chased after a 10% jump?
    Yes. I believe Meta's growth runway is long. I see accelerating revenue, AI driven ad strength & its willingness to spend boldly because the growth is real.

    Apple:  It trades on expectations, not explanations. So even when it says memory cost inflation is manageable, the market hears margins may drop, supply chain is  tight. Growth is capped.

    Tesla: 2026 is the year where promises must become proof.  Robotaxi must scale, not just demo. Optimus must work, not just wave.  Tesla must show execution not just hype.

    @Tiger_comments @TigerClub @TigerStars

  • BTS
    02-01
    BTS
    The recent Mag 7 earnings have turned the tech sector into a battleground, with high expectations clashing against capital expenditure realities, raising concerns about the AI tax on balance sheets。。。

    Microsoft (MSFT) plunged -12%, sparking debates on whether the crash is an overreaction and $400 is a good “dip-buy” level for long-term entry, with some fearing deeper, unresolved issues

    Meta Platforms (META) surged +10%, leading the market to assess if it is still worth chasing; Apple (AAPL) remains calm on rising memory costs, despite inflation being “not a concern”, its stock barely moved, raising concerns on market saturation; Tesla Motors (TSLA) shifted focus to AI and robotics, leaving investors to weigh if its long-term narrative will deliver in 2026 or slip further

    As mixed signals persist in tech, the coming weeks will be critical to see if prices sustain; volatility is expected to remain high as the market gauges which companies can turn AI spending into long-term growth

  • 1PC
    01-31
    1PC
    MSFT仍然是一只好股票,在这个水平上作为投资可能会让一些人麻木[Chuckle]....但我没子弹了。😭 @JC888 @Barcode @koolgal @Shernice轩嬣 2000 @Aqa @Shyon @DiAngel
    • koolgal
      让我们向幸运之神要一些第纳尔🥰🥰🥰🌈🌈🌈💰💰💰
  • Cadi Poon
    01-31
    Cadi Poon
    收入$59.9 B,與廣告收入增長+23%.

    人工智能正在打造Meta的廣告定位效率極高.即使有激進的2026年資本支出計劃,Meta的第一季度收入指引遠高於共識-“再加速”的故事完全超過了圍繞支出的擔憂。

Leave a comment
38
101