Reward 500 Tiger-coinsThis week, $Alphabet(GOOG)$, with a market cap exceeding $4 trillion, and $Amazon.com(AMZN)$, currently streamlining its organization, will take center stage. This time, the market is looking beyond "Large Model" narratives to focus on real margins and ROI.
$Alphabet(GOOG)$: The "Harvest Season" of Full-Stack AI
Power of Gemini 3.0: BofA expects Search growth to rise to 15% (from 13%), driven by higher conversion rates from AI Search.
Cloud (GCP) Acceleration: With self-developed TPUs (70% unit cost reduction) and mega-deals like Anthropic, Cloud has become the fastest growth engine.
Apple Endorsement: The AI partnership with Apple is seen as a ultimate validation of its tech strength, though valuation concerns (higher than MSFT) remain.
$Amazon.com(AMZN)$: Beware the Lingering "Bullwhip Effect"
Inventory Alert: Q3 2025 inventory hit a record peak of $41.5 billion, up 21.28% YoY, far outstripping the 13% revenue growth.
Margins Peaking? Market expects Q4 net margin to pull back to 9.93% (from 11.7%), hit by inventory-driven promotions and logistics costs.
Organizational Slimming: Can the plan to cut 16,000 corporate roles offset inventory costs and sustain its premium valuation?
This Week’s Two Big Tech Reports — Google vs. Amazon, Who Beats?
Which one can hit a new all-time high?
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I think Google can close above $340, benefiting from its full-stack AI advantage.
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At the same time, GCP looks structurally stronger. Self-developed TPUs are lowering costs, while large deals like Anthropic support both scale and margins. The Apple AI partnership remains a strong validation of Google’s full-stack capabilities, even if valuation concerns linger.
By comparison, I’m more cautious on $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ in the near term. Elevated inventory and expected margin pullback still pose risks, despite organizational slimming. For this week, I think the market favors clearer ROI — I believe Google can close above $340, driven by its full-stack AI edge, and it has a better chance of setting a new all-time high.
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analysts predoction-Alphabet currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) due to its extensive recent rally, while Amazon holds a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), suggesting analysts see more immediate upside potential for Amazon stock if it delivers a strong report.
Alphabet (GOOGL): Based on the most recent intraday data and pre-earnings volatility, Alphabet is expected to close near $344.16.
Amazon (AMZN): Amazon is projected to close around $239.61.
The market is witnessing a brutal show me moment for Big Tech. While Google's latest earnings delivered top line growth, it has been overshadowed by a massive looming figure : The 2026 Capital Expenditure.
Google's earnings report showed that it is benefiting from its long term AI integration. However the cost is substantial.
The Harvest: Google Cloud increased 48% as AI workloads grew. It also decreased Gemini's serving costs by 78%, showing that efficiency is improving as demand rises.
The Bill: Capex of USD 175 B to USD 185 billion , almost double its 2025 spending.
The reaction : The stock fell. Investors are concerned that Alphabet is spending too much in infrastructure.
Amazon is facing a similar problem to Alphabet - spending too much on Capex. It must show how it can monetise its capex.
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利潤率見頂？市場預計，受庫存驅動的促銷和物流成本的打擊，第四季度淨利潤率將回落至9.93%（從11.7%）。