$Strategy(MSTR)$ $CME Bitcoin - main 2602(BTCmain)$  $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$  🚨₿📉 BTC Enters Monthly Bear Cycle, $MSTR Breakdown Intensifies 📉₿🚨

I believe BTC has now entered a monthly bear cycle, and the transition from expansion into correction is now transmitting directly into BTC-proxy equities like $MSTR.

I’m stepping back from intraday noise and focusing on higher timeframe structure because regime shifts register here first, and right now structure is delivering a clear message.

📉 ₿ BTC Monthly Structure Breakdown

I’m treating the 118k to 127k zone as the likely cycle high for this run. Monthly momentum has rolled over, and price is no longer respecting prior support shelves, it is now violating them.

After parabolic advances, markets rarely stop at first support. They probe deeper liquidity.

Key levels now in focus:

• 72k to 70k, prior structure shelf that failed

• 66k to 63k, major liquidity pocket already tested

• 63k to 55k, primary monthly demand zone

BTC has now broken below 70k, recently reaching the mid-66k region amid accelerated selling, forced deleveraging, and weakening risk sentiment. This behaviour matches typical liquidity overshoot conditions seen before stabilization attempts.

The 63k to mid-50k zone therefore remains technically active.

This is classic monthly cycle unwinding following euphoric expansion phases.

📉 🏢 $MSTR Capturing Amplified BTC Pressure

I’m seeing that macro weakness magnify in $MSTR.

Current configuration:

• Stock printed a 17-month low near $111.56

• Down roughly -66% over the past 12 months

• Trading beneath a declining 60DMA

• Downside momentum extending into earnings

MSTR behaves like leveraged BTC exposure layered with equity-specific risk. During BTC corrections, MSTR typically amplifies downside in both speed and magnitude.

Recent developments reinforce this dynamic, with multi-billion dollar unrealized drawdowns on BTC holdings contributing to heavy selling pressure and defensive positioning around earnings.

New lows ahead of earnings signal positioning stress, not optimism.

📊 📅 Earnings Acting as Volatility Trigger

Earnings again highlight how tightly company performance remains tethered to Bitcoin price swings rather than stable operating earnings.

Recent quarters show extreme EPS variability, with deep losses during BTC pullbacks and upside surprises during BTC rallies.

Expectations were already depressed into this release, creating tension:

1. Continued BTC weakness or cautious outlook could trigger another liquidity flush.

2. Stabilising BTC conditions may allow a short relief bounce.

Structurally, rallies remain suspect unless BTC itself stabilises first.

🧠 📌 Framework Going Forward

I’m watching two developments closely:

• Does BTC stabilise above 63k, or sweep liquidity deeper toward 55k?

• Does $MSTR defend post-earnings lows, or extend lower with BTC?

I’m not expecting sustainable upside in $MSTR until BTC confirms support and reclaims broken structure. Until then, strength likely attracts sellers rather than momentum buyers.

This does not look like panic selling. It looks like a disciplined higher-timeframe reset following euphoric expansion, precisely how monthly cycles clear excess before the next expansion phase.

Discipline over reaction. Position sizing and risk management matter most in this regime.

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