$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ $Broadcom(AVGO)$ πβ‘ $NVDA Q4 FY26: Record Revenue, Accelerating EPS, and a $206B Intraday Repricing β οΈπ
$NVDA delivered one of the strongest quarters ever recorded in large-cap technology, yet the stock experienced a 5% intraday repricing that removed approximately $206 billion in market value. For context, that exceeds the entire equity valuation of Walt Disney Company.
The divergence warrants structural analysis rather than emotional reaction.
π Earnings Execution Remains Exceptional
β’ Revenue: $68.1B, +73% YoY, above $66.2B consensus
β’ Adjusted EPS: $1.62 vs $1.53, +82% YoY
β’ Data Centre: $62.3B, +75%
β’ Networking: $11B, +263%
β’ Gross margin expansion
β’ Free cash flow approaching $35B for the quarter
β’ Q1 FY27 guidance: $78B Β±2% vs $72.6B Street
Importantly, guidance excludes any meaningful data-centre revenue from China.
Execution was not the variable that changed.
π Flow, Liquidity and Regime Compression
During the session:
β’ $44M+ single-leg calls sold
β’ $15M+ puts bought
β’ Gamma exposure compressed
β’ Liquidity pockets breached intraday
β’ Systematic and volatility-targeting flows de-risked
This was positioning recalibration inside a crowded AI regime, not earnings deterioration.
The repricing cascaded through the semiconductor complex as cross-asset volatility expanded:
$AVGO $AMAT $LRCX $WDC each declined 5% to 7% at session lows.
All Magnificent Seven components π΄
$AAPL $MSFT $GOOGL $AMZN $META $TSLA $NVDA are now negative year to date, signaling concentration fatigue within the current macro liquidity cycle.
π Demand Visibility and Structural Capex
Management reiterated that sales growth is tracking beyond the previously disclosed $500B 2026 revenue pipeline. Hyperscalers including $GOOGL, $MSFT, $AMZN and $META have collectively signaled at least $630B in 2026 capital expenditure, largely directed toward data centers and AI compute infrastructure.
The company also stated it has secured sufficient chip inventory and capacity beyond the next several quarters, easing prior concerns around supply constraints at Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company.
That materially strengthens forward visibility.
π Analyst Positioning
Morgan Stanley raised its price target to $260 post-earnings. Consensus clusters near that level, implying more than 38% upside from current pricing as forward estimates continue adjusting higher.
βοΈ Risk Factors Worth Monitoring
β’ Customer concentration increased, with two customers accounting for 36% of fiscal 2026 revenue
β’ Competitive intensity rising from $AMD and internal accelerator development at $GOOGL
β’ Limited H200 licenses approved for China, but no China revenue embedded in near-term guidance
β’ Stock-based compensation will now be included in non-GAAP metrics, enhancing transparency
These are structural considerations, not thesis breaks.
π Strategic Perspective
Blackwell capacity remains effectively sold out. The Rubin roadmap progresses. CUDA maintains ecosystem dominance. Hyperscaler demand remains firm across enterprises and sovereign AI initiatives.
When exceptional execution meets extreme expectations and concentrated ownership, price can temporarily disconnect from fundamentals. That is characteristic of late-stage momentum regimes.
I focus on structure, liquidity, volatility expansion, dispersion, cross-asset positioning and valuation compression. Dislocations within durable technology leadership often create asymmetric analytical opportunity for those differentiating sentiment from cash flow durability.
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