$AppLovin Corporation(APP)$ is down 20%+ 🔴
Yet,
Growth is INCREDIBLE, Margins are out of this world, and Global TAM is $1T+.
Here is my $APP Investment Thesis:
1/ What does $APP do?
Listen to the CEO explain it.
It is simple: “Half the money I spend on advertising is wasted, the trouble is, I don’t know which half.”
$APP sells an answer to this old advertising dilemma.
AppLovin is an AI-based advertising platform that's focused on mobile apps but is expanding to WEB and Streaming.
2/ AppDiscovery
$APP AXON AI engine uses sophisticated AI models trained on billions of anonymized device interactions to find the best place for ads to maximise ROI.
This service carefully analyses the advertised app and then uses AXON's predictive algorithms to help advertisers find users who are most likely to download that app.
3/ AppDiscovery capabilities
- AI Targeting
- Customer LTV Estimates
- Retention Calculations
- Detailed ROAS targets
- Banner, Video, and other Ads
- Massive Scale, 1.6B Daily Users
4/ How effective is AppDiscovery?
Daily Yoga sought AppLovin’s help to reignite growth, and the results were amazing and instantaneous:
- 100% month-over-month growth in US app installs
- 62% growth in day zero ROAS
- 24% growth in overall ROAS
- Reached 16th place in the US Apple App Store health and fitness rankings
5/ MAX Supply Side Advertising Platform
Connecting the publisher and the advertisers has always been a challenge!
$APP MAX is a supply-side platform that solves this problem with a bidding process that's:
- Automatic
- AI-driven
- Split-second fast
- Delivers the Highest price
6/ MAX results
Thanks to MAX, video game studio N3TWORK saw:
- 75% increase in revenue per DAU on Android
- 85% increase on iOS
$APP own AppDiscovery demand-side advertising network bids alongside other advertising networks for MAX inventory.
The more demand MAX can bring and the higher the bids, the more both AppLovin and the publisher earn!
7/ Adjust
$APP B2B advertising analytics and attribution service.
Adjust is an AppLovin’s medicine that fixes an important headache for both the publisher and the advertiser!
Figuring out which ads work!
Advertisers want to spend on ads that work, while publishers want to charge a higher price for better inventory.
8/ Adjust Capabilities
- Deep integrations with ad platforms (not just $APP)
- Tracks campaign success
- Real-time dashboards
- Detailed and segmented data
- Valuable insights and analytics tools
9/ Adjust Results
The video game developer 2K Games, famous for its NBA 2K series, was able to achieve a ROAS of 300-500%, thanks to Adjust.
Knowing what works and what doesn't is incredibly valuable, Adjust delivers this critical information.
10/ Wurl
Wurl is an advanced connected TV (CTV) distribution and monetization platform!
Video streaming is the next growth vertical!
Essentially, Wurl combines the capabilities of the AppDiscovery and MAX services, but just for CTVs, not mobile apps!
11/ Huge Mobile TAM
Analysts at Fortune Business Insights forecast that the global mobile advertising market will grow with a stunning 21.1% CAGR till 2032, reaching $1T!
$APP is uniquely positioned to use AI to serve both the demand and supply sides of this large and growing pie.
12/ Streaming TAM
Analysts at Straits Research estimate that the streaming advertising market will grow with a 20.4% CAGR to reach $693B by 2030!
$APP is well-positioned to grow in this space as premium streaming fatigue and higher prices push people towards more affordable, ad-supported entertainment options.
13/ E-commerce Advertising
In the Q2 2025 earnings call, the CEO said that they are extremely excited to grow in the fast-growing E-commerce advertising segment.
- E-commerce stores spend 10-20% on Ads.
- $125B in global e-commerce advertising spending.
$APP has only scratched the surface.
14/ Ecosystem Synergies
Together, AppDiscovery, MAX, Adjust, and Wurl create a synergistic feedback loop essential for AI-powered performance marketing!
MAX empowers publishers to maximize revenue from their ad inventory, generating data to train AI models. These AI models are used in AppDiscovery to acquire high-quality customers for MAX.
Adjust provides additional data to further measure and enhance AI advertising campaigns, ensuring that advertisers achieve profitable ad spend.
15/ Incredible Revenue Growth
- Q1 70.9% to $1.2B
- Q2 77% to $1.26B
- Q3 68% to $1.4B
- Q4 66% to $1.66B
16/ Mindboggling Margins 🤯
Margins have transformed in the last 2 years!
EBITDA: 11% ➡️ 79%
Operating: -3% ➡️ 77%
Net Profit: -11% ➡️ 66%
FCF: 23% ➡️ 79%
17/ Incredible Growth
2028 Estimates:
- Revenue $12.8B +134%
- EBITDA $10.9B +142%
- EBIT $9.9B +140%
- Net Income $8.6B +156%
- FCF $8.4B +116%
17/ Valuation
After the pullback is TTM P/E of 42.
2028 P/E is 16.
If they keep these margins, sustain growth momentum, and expand to WEB and Streaming advertising, investors will be rewarded.
APP gets punished for perfection. the ad engine prints money and advertisers arent leaving. dips like this dont last
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